This begins a three-game series between two Eastern Division rivals in the senior circuit. Along with this are competitive teams and we have a very good pitching matchup.
The NL East is nothing to write home about to start the season. New York is in first place; however, their record is a very undistinguished 18-16. If any club in the division puts together a six-game winning streak they would probably take control, at least for the short term.
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
Monday, May 17, 7:10 PM EDT (ESPN) at Truist Park
The betting odds at Bovada and other top sportsbooks have Atlanta at -153, with the total at 8.5 (Ov-120). This was heavily bet as the Braves opened at -123.
New York Glad to Move On
When the nine-game road started for New York (-4.9 units), they were flying high, riding a seven-game win streak and had taken over first place in the NL East. Three days later after being swept by the defending American League champs Tampa Bay, the mood has soured, outscored 22-9 in the Friday thru Sunday matchups.
Mets manager Luis Rojas is hoping a change of scenery will lift his team’s spirit and have them go back to how they were playing last week.
New York needs a Francisco Lindor sighting. Not the guy wearing blue and orange colors, but the one who wore the Cleveland Indians colors. The shortstop is batting below .200 with no power. Though Lindor only has two errors, his DWAR (defense wins above replacement) is 29th among 40 graded shortstops and he’s middle of the road in Range Factor. He’s not the only reason why the Mets are averaging 3.5 runs a game but he’s a big part of it.
Atlanta Trying to Put it Together
After being swept at home by Toronto, a series win in Milwaukee saw the offense come alive, which might kickstart Atlanta (19-21, -7.7). The Braves tallied 20 runs in the Brew City and never quit Sunday when down 8-0, getting within one run before falling 10-9. Atlanta might gain some confidence from this since they played the series without Ronald Acuna Jr., who had injured his ankle. He’s listed as day-to-day.
Right now, this offense has to score since the Braves pitching is permitting more than 5.0 RPG, For them to continue on the right path, Freddie Freeman, Marcell Ozuna and Dansby Swanson have to deliver more frequently than they have been. How exactly Atlanta’s pitching staff is solved is another question. For now, the onus is on the offense and they need to step up and see if they can continue what they started over the weekend.
Pitching Breakdown
On your computer screen or phone, the starting pitching encounter is worth tuning in. We think we can say Taijuan Walker is all the way back from the 2018 Tommy John surgery. It actually started after being sent to Toronto last year, where he made six starts and posted a 1.37 ERA. It’s continued with the Mets with a 3-1 record in seven starts (New York 6-1) and superb 2.20 ERA. Where he’s had his greatest success is with the fastball and cutter and he’ll look to do the same tonight.
Left-hander Max Fried (1-1, 6.55 ERA) is not to the level he was in 2019-20, nevertheless, he’s getting there. Since coming off the DL with a groin injury, Fried made two starts covering 11 innings, allowing two runs on six hits. The complete command of the strike zone is not there yet, but it’s coming. With New York 2-5 versus LH starters and scoring a minuscule 2.5 RPG, that should help Fried.
Game Prediction
We agree with the sportsbooks in making Atlanta the favorite. We don’t completely agree with the betting public for MLB picks in pushing the line this high, since Walker ultimately gives New York a real chance to win despite their offense. Nonetheless, Fried and Braves are 19-4 as a favorite of -125 to -175, with the Metropolitans 2-9 on the road when the total is 7 to 8.5 this season.
MLB Picks: Braves -153 ML at Bovada
