Will Luke Doncic play for the Dallas Mavericks in Game 3 of their Western Conference first-round playoff series at the Utah Jazz on Thursday night?
He might so, which way to lean for this matchup? Let’s take a look at the NBA odds.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Utah Jazz
Thursday, April 21, 2022 – 09:00 PM EDT at Vivint Arena
Betting Recap
NBA TV has this telecast. This is my second Western Conference playoff preview this week, and we’re 1-0. Although I have to admit that I didn’t think there was any chance the New Orleans Pelicans would win Game 2 of their series at the top-seeded Phoenix Suns on Tuesday.
Then again, I couldn’t have predicted that Suns star Devin Booker would leave with a hamstring injury, either. Anyways, we took the +9.5 points and the Pels won by 11.
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Most home teams are disappointed when they don’t win the first two games of a playoff series, but the Mavericks have to be thrilled with the split against Utah in Big D considering Luka Doncic didn’t play in either. See below for his updated status, but it’s going to make handicapping this one very tough.
Tied 1-1, Utah is now -225 on the series line at BMR’s top-rated books with Dallas +195. The Jazz winning in six is the +210 favorite and on the series length prop, six is a +135 favorite followed by seven at +165 and five at +255. Dallas is 6-1 against the spread in the past seven meetings.
Bet Brunson If Doncic Out
Mavs star Luka Doncic hadn’t gone through a full practice since straining his calf in the regular-season finale but did Wednesday – albeit there was no scrimmaging and that’s an important fact. He has been upgraded to questionable/game-time decision.
Essentially, if he feels good Thursday and the team’s medical staff tells him that he isn’t at risk of making it worse, he will play.
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"I don't know if I'm going to be 100 percent. I think that's tough right now,” Doncic said. “But if I'm ready and there's no risk of [aggravating the] injury, I'll be out there."
As a point of reference, the average absence for a calf strain for NBA players this season has been 16 days and Doncic was hurt on April 10 so we aren’t close to 16 days yet (would be 11 on Thursday). Mavs backup guard Frank Ntilikina returned from a calf strain in 12 days, earlier this season.
Without Doncic
Monday’s 110-104 upset win over Utah improved the Mavericks to 9-10 without Doncic this season including playoffs. Free-agent-to-be Jalen Brunson made a boatload of cash with a career-high 41 points, a career-high six three-pointers made and eight rebounds and five assists to go with nary a turnover.
He was the first Mavericks player in franchise playoff history with at least 40 points and zero turnovers. Brunson joined Doncic (twice) as the only Mavericks to record 40+ points, 8+ rebounds and 5+ assists in a regulation-length playoff game.
So, yeah, I recommend an over Brunson points prop Thursday if Doncic sits again.
I do think Dallas got a bit lucky in Game 2 by making a whopping 22 three-pointers (franchise playoff record) and committing only three turnovers (franchise playoff record low). Big man Maxi Kleber thought he was Dirk Nowitzki, going 8-for-11 from deep for a playoff career-high 25 points off the bench.
Dallas improved to 9-4 ATS in its last 13 as an underdog.
Jazz Need Better Defense
While the Mavericks no doubt were thrilled with a home split in the first two games, the Jazz have to be kicking themselves. They probably should have won Game 2 but were outscored by 10 in the fourth quarter and kept leaving Dallas shooters open.
The Mavs’ 17 uncontested three-pointers made were the most by any team in the past 10 postseasons. Clearly, that was a point of emphasis at practice Wednesday.
“It starts on the ball,” said Utah’s Donovan Mitchell. “I think some of the stuff we can fix. … You gotta keep guys in front. We gotta do a better job at that, and then limit their wide-open 3s.”
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Mitchell had 34 points in Game 2 but was an ugly 13-for-30 and minus-14. Rudy Gobert had only eight points as he has become an afterthought on offense, although he did have 17 rebounds. Mike Conley, who makes about $35 million per year, somehow had zero points in 22 minutes and battled foul trouble.
Frankly, the only Utah players who performed well were Bojan Bogdanovic (25 points on 9-for-15 shooting) and reserve Jordan Clarkson (21 points on 8-for-11 shooting).
The Pick
Utah does have one of the best home-court advantages because of raucous crowds and playing at altitude; the Jazz were 29-12 at Vivint Arena during the regular season (but only 17-22-2 ATS).
I guess we have to take the points here for our NBA picks because Dallas stayed close in both games without Doncic, and I think he plays Thursday. The Jazz are 0-4 ATS in their past four at home vs. teams with a winning record.
Score Prediction: Jazz 110, Mavericks 106
NBA Pick: Mavericks +7 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
