For the first time in 28 years, the Montreal Canadiens will host a Stanley Cup Final game on Friday night. It’s all but a must-win for them as the Habs are down 2-0 to the Tampa Bay Lightning, and the Bolts are solid favorites for Game 3. Which way to lean at BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks?
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Montreal Canadiens
Friday, July 02, 2021 – 08:00 PM EDT at at Bell Centre
NHL history will be made on Friday night with the first Stanley Cup Final game ever played in July; of course, this season started quite a bit late so everything was pushed back. Last season’s delayed Stanley Cup Final was played in September.
Tampa Bay held serve at home in the first two games against Montreal, both times as a mammoth favorite and with the total set at 5.0 goals in each as it is here and should remain all series. The over hit in Game 1 and the under in Game 2.
On the updated series line at BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks, the Lightning are -1700 to become the second team this century to repeat as Stanley Cup champions and the Canadiens are +900 to complete an unlikely comeback – it’s not happening barring major injury/COVID on the Lightning. The favored exact result is now Tampa Bay in a sweep at +180 with the long shot on the NHL odds Montreal winning the next four at +1800.
Incidentally, only 3,500 fans will be allowed in attendance at Bell Centre. The Canadiens asked the province of Quebec to up that number to 10,500 for the Stanley Cup Final but were turned down. Canada is still in much stricter protocols than the USA is – Lightning players will essentially be in a bubble for their stay in Montreal.
Bolts Never Lose up 2-0
Statistically speaking, the Lightning are near-locks for the series. A total of 51 previous times in a best-of-seven Stanley Cup Final, a team has gone up 2-0. It has won 46 of those. When Tampa Bay has gone up 2-0 in any best-of-7 series all-time, it is 8-0. This year, teams that went up 2-0 are 6-1 in a series. The lone loser was Colorado vs. Vegas.
While Tampa Bay was pretty clearly the better team than Montreal in the 5-1 victory in Game 1, the Lightning were frankly outplayed in Game 2 and none of their Big three of Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point or Steven Stamkos even had a point – they are the top three scorers in these playoffs.
Instead, the Lightning got another dominant effort from all-world goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy, caught some breaks and got goals from lesser players in Anthony Cirelli, Blake Coleman and Ondrej Palat in the 3-1 victory. Coleman’s goal with just two seconds left in the second period was spectacular and proved to be the game-winner. Montreal had all the momentum. Coleman became the fourth player in league history to score the game-winning goal of a Stanley Cup Final game within the final two seconds of a period.
Vasilevskiy had 42 saves in his sixth career playoff outing with 40-plus saves, already the most by a Lightning goaltender in franchise history. He’s the -160 favorite on the NHL futures to win his first Conn Smythe Trophy and almost surely will do so.
Injury-wise, the Bolts played without forward Alex Killorn in Game 2 due to an undisclosed injury, but he did travel with the team to Montreal. Killorn is fourth in these playoffs with 17 points.
The Lightning are 5-2 on the NHL picks in their past seven as road favorites.
Party Like It’s 1993!
This will be the first time Montreal hosts a Stanley Cup Final game since June 9, 1993 when the Canadiens beat the Los Angeles Kings 4-1 in Game 5 to win the Cup – the last team from Canada to win it. That was at the old Montreal Forum, which has been closed since 1996. It’s a shame they aren’t allowed to sell the game out as those fans have waited so long for this opportunity. It should be a zoo outside, though.
The Habs certainly should be fairly confident after outshooting the Lightning a whopping 43-23 in Game 2. Carey Price just has to stop giving up third-period goals – three in Game 1 and another in Game 2. He has not been as sharp as previous rounds, but he’s also facing by far the best offense he has seen. Being at home should help defensively as the Habs get the last line change.
Montreal will get interim head coach Dominique Ducharme back for Game 3. He has spent the past two weeks in isolation after testing positive for COVID before Game 3 of the last round vs. Vegas. Assistant Luke Richardson has been filling the head-coaching duties and the Canadiens have a 3-3 record without Ducharme.
History is obviously against the Habs. When trailing 2-0 in a best-of-seven all-time, they own a series record of 5-18 compared to 24-19 when it’s 1-1. It’s the fifth time the league’s most storied franchise has been down 2-0 in a Cup Final and Montreal has rallied to win two of those, coming in 1966 and ’71.
Montreal is 5-1 on the NHL odds in its past six at home. The Habs “could” win this game, but they simply aren’t as talented.
NHL pick: Lightning at -133 with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
