Knicks vs. Celtics NBA Playoffs Game 5 Best Bets: Don’t You Dare Dismiss Boston

The Rally Angle

Commonly, bettors look to fade a team that loses a key player. 

It is a mistake to think like this because real life basketball is not a video game where a team’s overall rating drops when it loses a player. Instead, real life basketball is structured by schemes and coaching strategies in which players are tools.

True, players obviously still need to play well. This is where the rally angle comes in: when an important player goes down, other players tend to step up their performance. Jayson Tatum’s teammates know that they need to be better in order to make up for his injury-induced absence.

Expect them to play inspired basketball tonight after their comrade-in-arms just underwent surgery for his injured Achilles.

Boston Without Tatum

This year, the Celtics have built a tremendous history of playing well without Tatum.

They are 8-2 without him, with one of those losses coming in a game where they played their second- and third-stringers. To emphasize this point, their winning percentage is higher without Tatum than it is with him.

We’ve already seen this play out in the postseason. In its series against defensive stalwart Orlando, Boston achieved its second-highest output when it defeated the Magic 109-100.

Boston’s Injury-Proof Offense

The Celtics are able to thrive without Tatum because their offense is well-designed to create open shots for their players.

Without Tatum, there will be less iso ball and more team-oriented play. In the regular season, they attempted spot-up shots with the ninth-highest frequency. In this round, they are attempting 8.5 more open threes per game than any other team.

In particular, the Celtics like to drive inside and then kick the ball out to an open shooter behind the arc.

Look out for Jaylen Brown tonight, who has a superb track record in games without Tatum — in that Game 2 against the Magic, for example, he had 36 points. 

But Brown also had a series-high five assists. Brown excels at getting into the paint. He is very tough for any defender to stop. When he gets into the paint, he’ll attack the basket himself or use the attention that he draws inside from defenders to find a teammate behind the arc.

Those three-point shooting teammates will include guys like Jrue Holiday, Derrick White — who is also an elite finisher around the basket — and Payton Pritchard.

Pritchard will be a big reason why Boston’s offense looks better tonight than it often has looked with Tatum. Tatum’s iso actions have been problematic in this series, especially as he’s settled for too many threes. 

Instead of standing around and watching Tatum create his own shot, guys like Pritchard will be more involved in the offense. Pritchard is a fantastic three-point shooter who converted 50 percent of his three-point attempts against Orlando’s top-ranked perimeter defense and is converting 38.7 percent of his threes in this series.

He regularly attempts a lot of threes, so I find that oddsmakers are really disrespecting him by setting his three-point makes over/under at 2.5.

NBA Pick: Payton Pritchard Over 2.5 Made Three-Pointers (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

Payton Pritchard Over 2.5 Made Three-Pointers (-115)

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Key Trend for New York’s Defense

The Knicks’ defense was impressive in Game 1 and 2 but lackluster in Game 3. Are we going to see a good version of New York’s defense tonight or a bad one?

History tells us that it will be the latter.

Dating to last year’s postseason, the Knicks are 0-5 when they are up two games in a given series. New York will underperform — on both offense and defense — because it is coming in too high, whereas the Celtics will play desperately at home.

In those five losses, New York commonly suffered some of its worst defensive performances, such as when it conceded 125 points in Game 3 in Philadelphia last year and 115 points against Boston in Game 3 of this current series.

NBA Pick: Knicks Under 101.5 Points (-105) at BetOnline

Knicks Under 101.5 Points (-105)

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What New York’s Bad Defense Will Look Like

Boston is going to rely heavily on screens. Its staggered screens have been effective in this series, and, like in Game 3, it does a good job of adding in specific wrinkles and generally in making changes in order to flummox New York’s defenders.

These screens will negate the influence that New York’s best on-ball defenders is expected by many bettors to exercise in this matchup.

Screens are especially important for the Celtics in this series because, throughout the entire year, New York has struggled to stop them.

Bad communication is a common culprit here. A frequently guilty player is Karl-Anthony Towns, who is often too poorly positioned to trouble the opposing ball-handler when the latter uses a screen.

To defend ball-screens, defenders need to communicate well with each other. New York has often failed to do this.

In Game 3, for example, there is an instance where a Knicks defender indicates to his teammates that a screen will come. When that screen never happens, Boston’s ball-handler is able to reach his desired space unhindered and to convert an easy shot-attempt.

Boston’s Defense After a Loss

Tonight is also a great spot for Boston’s defense. The Celtics’ defense is regularly at its best when it is coming off a postseason loss.

Dating to last year’s playoffs, they have allowed fewer than 99 points in all five games that directly followed a loss.

They have had the personnel to be one of the NBA’s highest-ranked defenses this year. For example, they have the personnel to limit New York’s most important offensive player, Jalen Brunson. Jrue Holiday is a six-time All-Defensive Team selection who is ready to bounce back. His harassing on-ball pressure will help limit Brunson’s productivity.

NBA Pick: Jalen Brunson Under 27.5 Points (-125) at Bovada

Jalen Brunson Under 27.5 Points (-125)

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Takeaway

Boston’s offense scored 109 points without Tatum against one of the highest-ranking defenses. It can exceed that total tonight against the Knicks.

Expect a complex deployment of ball-screens that, along with effective driving actions, continue to facilitate propitious shooting opportunities, especially behind the arc, for a team that, with guys like Pritchard, has been one of the best all year at making threes.

With Boston’s defense at its best and New York, in general, coming in too high with a two-game series lead, tonight’s game will result in a double-digit victory for the Celtics.

NBA Pick: Celtics -4.5 (-105) at BetOnline

Celtics -4.5 (-105)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.