Knicks vs. Celtics NBA Playoffs Game 2 Best Bets: Here Comes Bounce-Back Boston

The Angle

It’s easy to think that the Knicks are the obvious play tonight because they are heavy underdogs even though they beat the Celtics in Game 1.

However, they didn’t win, because they proved to be better. Instead, it’s absolutely the case that Boston lost because it was so bad, because it was so much worse than it can easily be.

These teams were tied at 100 at the end of regulation even though the Celtics missed a ton of good looks to an extremely anomalous extent and even though they, normally a solid defensive team as evident in its season-long ranking of number two in defensive rating, played terribly in both its transition and half-court defense.

Boston’s Loss in Detail

Boston lost Game 1 like all of the other top teams did. These teams suffered from a mixture of rust — which is evident in Boston’s terrible shooting — and complacency after they were coming off an easy series.

To be exact, the Celtics missed 25 open three-point attempts and 17 wide-open three-point attempts. Normally, they are one of the best teams at converting three-point attempts.

The Celtics suffered from a mixture of sloppiness and laziness with a big lead. It is hard to turn the switch back on once you’ve switched it off. They were thus unable to regain focus and to become as sharp as they were when they led by 20. Because they lost and know from their coach that they needed greater concentration, one must expect Boston to maintain focus tonight.

Bad Reaction to New York’s Strategies

New York surprised Boston by switching more on ball-screens — in their regular season meetings, the Knicks emphasized more drop coverage.

The Knicks, in switching, allowed Boston to accumulate excellent one-on-one opportunities. The Celtics, though, responded poorly.

For example, in the last couple of minutes of regulation alone, Jayson Tatum settled for numerous step-back threes in isolation. He and teammates like Jaylen Brown enjoyed but largely chose not to exploit mismatches when they were guarded by Jalen Brunson or by either of New York’s centers whom they could have beaten to the basket.

A large part of Boston’s downfall was thus its inclination to settle for threes. Again, it’s not that New York beat Boston because it was so good. The Celtics, instead, made bad choices.

Now, in a sense, many of the Celtics’ choices on offense were good because the Knicks, especially when they fell behind by a large margin, were simply daring them to shoot.

The Knicks committed themselves to protecting the basket, thinking that they could either lose by a ton or, if the variance game went in their favor, that they could come back. This strategy is obviously unsustainable because the Celtics’ bevy of normally efficient three-point shooters is going to bounce back.

New York can’t guard the Celtics both at the basket, where guys like Derrick White and Tatum with their high conversion rate in the space nearest the basket excel at finishing, and behind the arc. 

But even if the Knicks commit themselves to protecting the basket again, Boston can do a better job of creating favorable two-point shot attempts.

Instead of attempting so many early shot-clock three-point attempts, for example, they could have implemented more methodical tactics and, for example, run more double-drag actions, which were effective.

New York will also have a harder time guarding the Celtics at the basket if stretch center Kristaps Porzingis returns to action. He is listed as ‘probable.’ He brings strong rim protection on defense and, on offense, a threat to make threes that forces the Knicks’ center away from the basket, vacating space inside for Boston’s rim-attackers to exploit.

The Biggest Problem

A team that relies more than any other squad on shooting threes, Boston could easily have scored at least 20 more points if the variance game had gone in its favor and aligned more closely with its season-long shooting prowess and if Porzingis hadn’t fallen ill.

The media is focusing on Boston’s shooting, but its defense was arguably even more problematic and more responsible for its defeat.

Because the Celtics still did enjoy instances where they attacked the basket and ran some good drive-and-kick actions, their sloppiness is more evident in the communication breakdowns, ball-watching, and other lapses that they committed on defense both in transition, where defenders frequently lost sight of their man, and in the half-court.

Video footage shows Brown, for example, watching the ball and being slow to react, which allowed the man he was responsible for to attempt an open three-point shot.

The Knicks shot unusually well. One must expect their conversion rate to drop not simply because of their season-long statistical average but also because the Celtics will maintain greater focus and avoid easily avoidable mistakes. They know that they can’t take a lower-seeded team for granted again. 

Jrue Holiday

The Celtics allowed 100 points despite all of their lapses. 

The fact that they did a great job of limiting the Knicks’ offense when they were focused enhances their outlook tonight.

Jrue Holiday, in particular, showed how well he can hound Brunson. Holiday is a six-time All-Defensive Team selection whose intense on-ball pressure makes it difficult for the opposing ball-handler to be efficient. Hence, Brunson’s field goal percentage in Game 1 was lower than it was in any other playoff game thus far except one.

With Boston’s off-ball defense improving drastically when guys like Brown stop ball-watching, Brunson’s teammates won’t do as well, while he will continue to struggle with Holiday guarding him. In Game 1, he scored 29 points (including overtime) but benefitted from unusually strong three-point efficiency that he displayed in his unsustainable level of shot-making.

Key Trend

One has to expect any favored team that lost a playoff game by being sloppy and unfocused to return in the next game, especially when it’s a home game that it must win to avoid going down 0-2, with greater sharpness and execution. 

The following trend shows that the Celtics are especially reliable in bounce-back situations: dating to last year, they are 4-0 ATS after a postseason loss.

They held all four of their opponents to 98 points or fewer in the following game. Two of those opponents failed to reach 85 points. Given their outlook against a New York team that played beyond itself while still only scoring 100 points, they won’t need to be better than their usual good selves on offense to cover the spread with ease.

Boston is a team with so many effective shooters and scorers who underperformed even in the mid-range in Game 1 but who are too solid to miss so many propitious looks again. The Celtics are too stout on defense — they’ve proven it throughout the year — to make so many mistakes again.

In addition to being better prepared for things like New York’s devotion to protecting the rim and to its increased switching, the Celtics will benefit from their characteristic readiness in bounce-back spots.

NBA Pick: Celtics -10.5 (-110) at BetOnline

Celtics -10.5 (-110)

Visit Site

NBA Pick: Knicks Under 100.5 Points (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

Knicks Under 100.5 Points (-115)

Visit Site

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.