After a close encounter in Game 1 of their opening-round playoff series, the Miami Heat and Mulwaukee Bucks will do it again in the midwest in what’s going to be a huge test for Miami. The Heat’s defense held strong in Game 1, but a loss in Game 2 could spell trouble for the defending Eastern Conference champions, who would then be on the brink of losing control in this series. Can Miami steal a win on the road and put a real scare into the Bucks, who will be having flashbacks to last season? We’ll tell you where to look at our top-rated sportsbooks.
Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Monday, May 24, 2021 – 7:30 PM EDT at Fiserv Forum
Must-win?
The Heat could be in a must-win situation here. Should Miami drop this one, it will be asked to take both home games down 2-0, and Miami is not where this team has thrived. At home this year, the Heat were just 15-19-2 against the spread, and an even-worse 3-5 as the home underdog, losing on average by 10 points. On the road is where the Heat made their money (and made us money), covering in 54.1% of contests away from Miami. Saturday was a perfect example of how well this team can compete on the road.
It was also an exhibition in defense. The Heat posted a 97.3 defensive rating against one of the most high-powered offenses in the game right now, limiting Milwaukee to a 46.4 effective field goal percentage. Giannis Antetokounmpo hit just 10 of 27 shots, and was a +2 when on the floor. Khris Middleton was what did Miami in when it was all said and done, and he was the most efficient performer on the offensive end. That puts some of the onus on Jimmy Butler to step it up on the defensive end, but then again, what more can this team really do on that side of the ball?
The Heat were killed on the glass in what could have been a decisive battle. Miami grabbed just 45.2% of available rebounds, and were out-rebounded by a difference of 13. In a game with such tight margins, losing the battle on the glass by such a considerable amount can’t happen again.
Everybody Loves Khris
Milwaukee has to be counting its lucky stars having Khris Middleton on the roster. The wing played 45 minutes in the overtime victory on Saturday, scoring a team-high 27 points and going 10 for 22 from the field, including three for nine from three. He was by far the best thing about the Bucks’ offense.
Another great thing about this team was definitely its rebounding, as discussed earlier. Milwaukee was able to grab 31.7% of available rebounds on the offensive end, and 54.8% in total. That effort was led by Antetokounmpo, who had 18 of his own. Interestingly, Milwaukee only posted an assist rate of 45.2%, to Miami’s 61.1%, illustrating how it played basketball on Saturday. Giannis and Middleton were in isolation countless times, as was Jrue Holiday. There was little passing of the ball to create chances, which again made sense considering the lack of a true shooter.
Milwaukee surely doesn’t have to change much, matching Miami with a 97.3 defensive rating and winning the game, though I’m sure it would love to see more out of its insanely-efficient offense. Bobby Portis has been fantastic on that end all season long, but played just 17 minutes in Game 1 and failed to make any sort of impact whatsoever. Perhaps the Bucks should deploy him more, or at least get him involved. That falls on Holiday, who didn’t do a ton of passing and is going to need to change his approach if Milwaukee wants to power its offense back up.
That leads me to my pick. With the current inefficiencies of the Bucks’ offense, and the great performance from both of these defenses, I still see this total as too high. Sure, the pace was pushed in the opening game, but I don’t think that will matter with great stoppers on either end. In fact, I only think the pace will go down from here.
I’m backing Miami to continue frustrating Milwaukee’s offense, and for the Heat to continue to struggle shooting on these long Bucks defenders.
NBA Pick: Under 222.5 (-108) at Betonline
