Falcons vs. Raiders Monday Night Football Pick: Desmond Ridder > Kirk Cousins?

Kirk Cousins deserves better than this. I desperately want to make an “Achilles heel” joke about Cousins and his recent drop-off in performance, but we’ve written him off before, haven’t we? Suffice to say the arrow is trending down for Cousins and the Atlanta Falcons (6-7 SU, 5-8 ATS) as they prepare for Monday night’s matchup with the Las Vegas Raiders (2-11 SU, 5-8 ATS). Let’s see if we can take advantage with our Week 15 NFL picks. 

What Happened to Kirk Cousins? 

He tore his Achilles tendon last year. Cousins was still with the Minnesota Vikings at the time; it was Week 8 versus the Green Bay Packers, and it was the last time we saw Cousins in purple. 

Did that stop the Falcons from signing Cousins to a four-year, $180-million contract in the offseason? Let me check my notes… nope, it did not. Nor did the fact that Cousins was about to turn 36. It was a gamble for Atlanta, one they hedged by drafting QB Michael Penix out of Washington with the No. 8 pick – and it paid off at first. Then Cousins hit the wall in Week 10. 

This is cover-your-eyes stuff, folks. Cousins has zero touchdown passes in his last four starts combined; the Falcons are 0-4 SU and ATS during this downfall, ceding first place in the NFC South to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Even Desmond Ridder would be an improvement at this point. 

Did Somebody Say Desmond Ridder? 

We will indeed see that theory put to the test. Raiders head coach Antonio Pierce has already announced that Ridder will get the start, although Aiden O’Connell (knee) says he’s “hoping to get there” and be available after this week’s MRI showed a bone bruise, nothing more. 

Ridder was Atlanta’s starting quarterback last year – or part of it, at least. A third-round pick in 2022 out of Cincinnati, Ridder made his NFL debut in Week 15 that year after the Falcons benched Marcus Mariota, and remained the starter for 2023, until Ridder himself got the hook halfway through. 

Long story made somewhat shorter, Ridder got traded to the Arizona Cardinals, failed to win the back-up job, signed to their practice squad, and got picked up by the Raiders on October 21 after O’Connell went on injured reserve. Then Gardner Minshew broke his collarbone, giving Ridder the opportunity to make three appearances off the bench for Las Vegas. Monday will be his first start. 

Is Ridder Better Than Cousins? 

Ah, these Aristotelian classification regimes. Let’s see what the numbers say, looking specifically at some of their raw splits for 2024 since Week 9 inclusive: 

• Cousins: 64.8 CMP%, 3 TD, 8 INT, 74.6 passer rating 
• Ridder: 63.6 CMP%, 1 TD, 0 INT, 85.3 passer rating 

Granted, Ridder’s sample size is much smaller than Cousins’s, with a 165-44 discrepancy in pass attempts. And we’re not supposed to completely ignore the good work Cousins did earlier in the year, or in years past. But we also have to acknowledge the glaring issues Atlanta has with their rushing and especially their pass defense. Peak Matt Ryan might not be enough to save them. 

The Pick 

You’re always taking your bankroll in your hands when you bet on a losing team like the Raiders this late in the season. But they’ll be playing at home, in prime time (albeit on ESPN while the Bears-Vikings game is on ABC), and they’re a viable “buy low” commodity after losing eight straight at 3-5 ATS. Bet accordingly. 

NFL Pick: Raiders +4 (-108) at Heritage Sports 

Raiders +4 (-108)

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