The Lakers made the 1st marquee addition of free agency by making a trade for Russell Westbrook. What are the chances that Westbrook will catapult them to a title and are the NBA odds correct in assessing the value of Westbrook’s addition?
In an earlier piece I wrote about free agency I mentioned to expect the unexpected! This was the case on draft day as the Lakers had seemingly honed in on a deal for Sacramento Kings’ sharp shooter Buddy Hield. This move seemed to make a lot of sense as surrounding LeBron James with shooters has always been the preferred team building route. While Buddy has issues with…well pretty much everything except for 3 point shooting. He is an exceptional 3 point shooter. Buddy struggles to convert his mid range jump shots, and is not a strong passer or rebounder. His defense is near the bottom of the league. Regardless, most assume that surrounded by defensive stalwarts LeBron James and Anthony Davis, Buddy’s sharp shooting would make up for his defensive deficiencies. Most thought the Hield trade had gone through. Lead NBA insider Adrian Wojnarowski had even reported it! Yet a last-second bid by the Washington Wizards caught the Lakers eye.
The Lakers could not pass up an opportunity to add former MVP Russell Westbrook. Westbrook has averaged a triple double, becoming the first player to do that since Oscar Robertson. Even at 32 and having lost a step, Westbrook is still arguably the fastest player in the league (besides De’Aaron Fox). Westbrook fights for every rebound, moves relentlessly without the ball, and is a force in transition. So what are the issues? Why are the Lakers now not the clear cut favorite to win the NBA title? It is because of the bloggers and analytics gurus’ favorite word…spacing.
Spacing is the idea that when a team has multiple shooters that must be respected from the 3 point line, their defenders will not leave them. Thus giving other offensive players more room and the opportunity to work 1 on 1 against an opponent. This is because help from other defenders will not come. A defense does not want to leave a 3 point shooter wide open in order to contest a layup. With LeBron this makes sense as he is an absolute bull getting towards the rim, and sometimes can draw 2 or 3 defenders. When that happens LeBron makes the right basketball play and quickly dishes to a wide open shooter. Sometimes it takes one extra pass, but eventually, an uncontested 3 point shot is attained, which is the goal of most offensive possessions in 2021.
While Westbrook is an absolute tornado getting to the rim and attacking the glass for rebounds, his jump shot has declined as he has gotten older. He was never a formidable 3 point shooter so the Westbrook jump shot has become the shot that the defense prefers to give up because of its low points per possession. Now with his midrange jumper failing him as well, teams often play him like a center and back up all the way to the post, daring him to shoot jump shots. This does not bode well for a post player like Anthony Davis and a relentless rim attacker such as LeBron James. LeBron and AD do not want to attack the rim only to have to overcome their own defender and Westbrook’s defender as well, who is going to leave him wide open for a jump shot.
This is a clear case of acquiring talent rather than fit. Westbrook was obviously the most talented player available, but Buddy Hield fit the team a lot better.
The Lakers are currently 2nd behind the Nets in NBA odds at +300 at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review). I do not believe this presents value. Firstly, the fit with Westbrook that I described earlier will be an issue even if the team stays healthy.
Also we cannot assume that the team will stay healthy as they ended the season with injuries to both stars. Anthony Davis has been injury prone throughout his career and even mentioned when he signed an early extension, leaving money on the table. He wanted to do so to mitigate the risk of injuries ruining his earning potential.
Lebron has been a Lou Gehrig-like iron man for most of his career, but at 37 how many more years can we pencil him in for not missing a game? This year he suffered a sprained ankle. This is something that he had overcome earlier in his career in an incredibly quick amount of time. This year his sprained ankle sidelined him for at least a month. He did not look 100% in his return, a playoff loss to Phoenix.
Additionally, the Lakers gave up valuable depth in order to acquire Westbrook. The Lakers were not a deep team already. Giving up valuable contributors such as Kentavious Caldwell Pope, Kyle Kuzma, and Montrezl Harrell will definitely make the Lakers title run even tougher. While Harrell was unplayable in the playoffs and Kuzma has been hit or miss, both these players provided depth and quality minutes during the regular season. This provides rest and avoids wear and tear on the other teammates. The Lakers are now left to fill out their roster with the mid-level exception. The Lakers are usually the number one spot for ring chasers. Yet now player-friendly and more popular stars in Brooklyn, Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, seem to have 1st dibs on all the available ring chasing free agents. This will be new to the Lakers to be 2nd fiddle in the market. They are used to attracting the top mid level exception for agents because of their adoring fan base and beautiful weather. We will see how they adjust to Brooklyn now being the top destination for free agents.
At +300 at Bovada, I do not believe there is any value in the Lakers’ NBA odds to win the title right now. While it is difficult to be against the talented trio of LeBron, AD, and Russell Westbrook, I do not think this team is built correctly.
I worry that they will not stay healthy and their lack of depth will be an issue which could also force more health concerns. I think the Lakers went for the most talented player rather than the proper fit and this could come back to haunt them. Unless Westbrook magically develops a jumper, this offense and this team will not have the space or depth to win the NBA title.
