The NFL Preseason is difficult to bet on because it’s unclear which players will actually suit up for the game. I approached this week by focusing on teams with more at stake, whether it’s because of a new head coach trying to make a strong first impression or if there’s an important position battle that needs to be resolved. We often see bad teams win games because they’re more aggressive in establishing priorities than settled teams.
Just having fresh football to analyze and enjoy is enough for most fans, but we know this will be another profitable year after recalibrating our models to account for gaps. There was a lot of change across the league, and preseason can be clunky after a busy offseason. Keep this in mind as well when making your picks this preseason.
All lines are courtesy of BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The Kansas City Chiefs won their preseason opener 19-16 over the 49ers. Patrick Mahomes only played one possession in that game, but he figures to see much more action in this one. On the other hand, Kyler Murray did not suit up for the Arizona Cardinals’ 19-16 win over the Dallas Cowboys. While we can expect Murray to see some action in Week 2, the fact that he didn’t play in the first week tells me that Kingsbury does not intend to use his quarterback too much during the preseason.
The Chiefs are only laying -2.5 points, so go with Mahomes and company. The Baltimore Ravens simply refuse to lose in the preseason, defeating the New Orleans Saints 17-14 in last week’s opener. The Ravens have now won 18 consecutive games in the preseason. They can tie the NFL record with a victory over the Panthers here.
The Carolina Panthers lost their opener 21-18 against the Colts. We’ll likely see some Sam Darnold in this game. Fire up the Ravens at -3.5 and ride the trend. The Detroit Lions were competitive in their opener, losing 16-15 to the Buffalo Bills. Quarterback Jared Goff saw extensive action in that game and we can expect more of the same in the second week of preseason.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are laying 5.5 points in this game, which seems like way too much, especially for a team that projects to be pretty average heading into the 2021 season. The Steelers have a position battle between Dwayne Haskins and Mason Rudolph for the backup quarterback job, so we’re likely to see more of them than Ben Roethlisberger. Go with Dan Campbell and the Lions here.
There’s nothing worse than seeing your team win the game without covering the spread, so we’ll add the Kansas City Chiefs (-133) and Baltimore Ravens (-175) to this parlay. There’s also some nice value to take advantage of with the Detroit Lions (+190), since they are 5.5-point underdogs to the Steelers.
I also added the Houston Texans (+150), who are coming off a 26-7 win over the Green Bay Packers. The Texans had a ton of roster turnover this offseason, so there are position battles all over this roster. There’s more at stake for the Texans in this one and it’s unclear if quarterback Dak Prescott will play for the Dallas Cowboys.
The Atlanta Falcons are coming off a poor effort in their 23-3 loss to the Tennessee Titans. Quarterback Matt Ryan did not suit up for that game, but there’s a good chance we see him here. It was also surprising to see rookie tight end Kyle Pitts on the bench in Week 1, but we’re likely to see him make his debut here. Expect a bounce-back win from the Falcons.