Bears vs. Vikings Monday Night Football Pick: Is Sam Darnold All That?
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Jason Lake
- December 13, 2024
NFL Pick: Under 44 (–108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Is it possible to be over-valued and under-valued at the same time? It is when you’ve got millions of people judging your every move. Sam Darnold has alternately been labeled the savior of the Minnesota Vikings (11-2 SU, 8-4-1 ATS) and the one thing holding them back from Super Bowl contention, depending on which way the prolate spheroid bounced the previous week.
Darnold was in Savior Mode last Sunday against the Atlanta Falcons: 22-of-28 for 347 yards, five touchdowns and zero turnovers in a 42-21 romp. Let’s “sell high” and put the Under in our NFL picks for Monday night’s matchup with the Chicago Bears (4-9 SU, 6-5-2 ATS). Each team has the Under at 8-5 on the season, and a top-rated sportsbook like Heritage Sports has Monday’s total at 44 as we go to press, up from 42.2 at the open.
Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings
Monday, December 16, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at U.S. Bank Stadium
Is Sam Darnold Any Good?
He’s playing in the National Football League, so yes, he’s one of the best in the world. But Darnold is about league-average as far as quarterbacks go. Balance out his ups and downs, and the former USC Trojan ranks No. 21 overall at minus-0.3 points (as per nfelo), in between Jameis Winston and Justin Fields.
League-average is nothing to be ashamed of. It’s a welcome relief in Minnesota after Kirk Cousins left for Atlanta and first-round draft pick J.J. McCarthy tore up his right knee during the preseason. And in this case, Darnold isn’t league-average in a “game manager” sense; he’s got the goods, but every once in a while, you get that 12-7 win over Jacksonville (Under 42) in Week 10, where Darnold threw zero TD passes and three picks.
Is Caleb Williams Any Good?
See above, except this former Trojan ranks No. 39 overall at minus-2.1 points compared to your average NFL starter, tied with Aidan O’Connell. The Bears are doing a classic job of botching this year’s No. 1 overall pick, just like they botched Fields and Mitch Trubisky before him by cycling through multiple offensive play-callers in a short time span.
There have been flashes. Caleb Williams looked like he was starting to gain some traction by October, but then it happened: four straight games without a touchdown. And now, suddenly, seven TD passes in his last three games, all while having not thrown a pick since Week 6.
The first game in his recent hot streak was in Week 11 when the Vikings came to Solider Field. Even with a low total of 39.5 on the NFL odds board, the Under was still within reach when Minnesota took a 24-10 lead into the middle of the fourth quarter. After that, the deluge; with the help of a successful onside kick, Williams got the Bears into overtime before losing 30-27.
Now they’re headed to Minneapolis with the total at 44 and (we hope) climbing. They’ll be indoors this time, which is important, but this total might be inflated by the recent high-end performances from Darnold and Williams – and we’ve already blown past the magic number 43 for totals, landing on the almost as magical 44. Another half-point to 44.5 would be worth nearly 10 cents of vigorish according to Wizard of Odds.
The Pick
The Vikings are also available as 7-point home faves on the NFL spreads, but that’s a tight line in our humble estimation. And these are two volatile commodities at quarterback, especially Williams; size your bets appropriately, wait for that total to bump up a bit more before kick-off, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.
NFL Pick: Under 44 (–108) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
