Barrios vs. Pacquiao First-Look: Early Betting Preview, Odds & Predictions

Barrios vs. Pacquiao Preview: It Doesn’t Make Sense

Mike Tyson thought he could come out of retirement and keep pace with a twenty-something influencer, and we all know how that turned out. For Manny Pacquiao, he won’t have the luxury of fighting inexperience, as his in-ring return following four years of retirement will be against the WBC welterweight title holder!

He’s a legend of sport and, once upon a time, sat as the pound-for-pound greatest on the planet. However, not since 2019, when he took a split decision win over Keith Thurman, has Pacquiao been considered a fighter capable of hanging around with the elite.

Simply put, ‘Pac-Man’ fighting for gold in 2025 makes zero sense. The bigger picture? Well, it makes money! For Marios Barrios, the defending champion, it’ll be the biggest and most lucrative fight of his career, especially as the likes of Devin Haney aren’t interested and other potentially huge bouts like Chris Eubank Jr. aren’t available right now.

Nostalgia Won’t Be Enough

The need for an analytic review in this contest isn’t necessary. The glory days at welterweight, where Pacquiao shared a division with Mayweather, Ricky Hatton, Miguel Cotto, Canelo, and Shane Mosley, are long behind us… The Pac-Man capable of elite performances of those days is also behind us.

Is Barrios one of the easiest reigning champions that Pacquiao could face in his comeback? Sure, but he’s a 29-year-old who’s competed five times since the Pac-Man fought professionally. Just the fact that he’s in his physical prime, going against a man four years short of his fiftieth birthday, should make this betting line -2000, but the allure of this boxing legend is preventing this fight’s probability from being where it should be, and I’m not complaining.

Swinging at Ghosts

The media companies promoting this fight will want us to forget what happened to Pacquiao the last time he fought, but I’ll give you a harsh reminder.

Rukiya Anpo, a pro kickboxer, made the Filipino legend look like a shell of his former self, and this was merely an exhibition bout! Manny’s body seemed to be faltering in the ring, and those uber-fast reflexes he once had weren’t anywhere to be seen. Even the version of Pac that lost to Ugan in 2021 before retirement would’ve made the version that fought Anpo look like a joke, so, to consider him as an underdog in 2025 against any of sports top guys would be foolish.

The fact of the matter is that Pacquiao was punching air against Anpo, an opponent competing in his first-ever professional boxing bout. Now, the WBC has waited 10 months since that fight to announce his return against a world champion… It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to know that this legend, reminiscent of Tyson’s stint on Netflix last year, could be in serious trouble once that bell rings.

Barrios vs. Pacquiao Best Bet

For bettors, the question shouldn’t be if Barrios is going to win, but how… He isn’t a knockout artist by any means, but Pacquiao’s legendary status and past achievements aren’t a shield for his chin at age 46.

We’re slightly early to look at those knockout odds, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Barrios landed so much unresponsive damage on Pac-Man that the referee is forced to step in. For that reason, the under 10.5 rounds at -110 feels generous, and as for the moneyline price on Barrios, -36 feels like an absolute gift!

The available odds are showing serious value, and to play it safe in what I feel like is an almost guaranteed win for Barrios, take the ML at -360, which should be closer to -1000, before it’s steamed to the latter number closer to fight night.

Boxing Pick: Barrios ML (-360) [3.6u returns 1u profit] at Heritage Sports

Barrios ML (-360)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.