The semifinals of the Australian Open have arrived. Only four men remain in pursuit of the 2022 title. Two men have previously won Grand Slams, two are still looking for that first trophy. Let’s take a look at the semifinal round and who we expect to make the final. Let’s find the winning tennis picks!
Matteo Berrettini vs. Rafael Nadal
Thursday, January 27, 2022 – 10:30 PM EST at Rod Laver Arena
Rafael Nadal played for 4 hours in his win over Denis Shapovalov. Nadal showed the mental fortitude of a champion as he outlasted the talented Canadian 6-3, 6-4,4-6, 3-6, 6-3. It was a bit surprising this match went five sets without a tiebreak, but that is something to note for us going forward.
Nadal had 8 aces and an uncharacteristic 11 double faults in the win over Shapovalov. He had a first-serve percentage of 68% and won 79 percent of the first serves that landed in. He won 46% of second-serve points.
Overall he won 22 of his 24 service games and was able to break Shapovalov 3 times in his 23 service games. It was not the most brilliant performance from Nadal, yet he did get the job done. Nadal called an MTO (medical timeout) and suffered physical ailments which he mentioned in his post-match interview. Nadal's fitness and health are also something we must keep in mind when handicapping this match.
Matteo Berrettini also needed five sets in order to win his quarterfinal match. Berrettini defeated Gael Monfils 6-4, 6-4, 3-6, 3-6, 6-2. It was the second five-set win for Berrettini in this tournament. Berrettini also had two 4-set victories en route to his semifinal appearance tonight. Interestingly, Berrettini has won 21 straight Grand Slam matches if you exempt his matches against world #1, Novak Djokovic, who is not in this tournament.
This is definitely an interesting matchup because the left-handed Nadal should be able to exploit Berrettini's weaker backhand with his forehand. Top-level opponents pick on Berrettini's backhand which is why he is 1-14 against the current top 5 players in the ATP.
On the flip side, Nadal did not look a hundred percent physically in the last match and it'll be interesting to see how his conditioning holds up. If Nadal is less than 100%, Berrettini definitely has the game to take advantage of that.
I like Nadal to win this match. Nadal has a great stylistic matchup against Berrettini and should be motivated to finish early. Stomach issues are less of a long-term concern and it is quite reasonable to assume that Nadal will try and finish this match as quickly as possible. Our first semifinal best bet is Rafael Nadal -3.5 (-110).
Tennis Pick: Rafael Nadal -3.5 (-110) with Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Daniil Medvedev
Friday, January 28, 2022 - 3:30 AM EST at Rod Laver Arena
Daniil Medvedev said he channeled the fighting spirit of Novak Djokovic in his five-set win over the young Canadian Felix Auger-Aliassime. Medvedev had to dig deep in order to pull off 6-7, 3- 6, 7-6, 7-5, 6-4 in the quarterfinal round of the Australian Open.
Medvedev said he thought of the time he played against Djokovic and committed to making his opponent work for every point. This ended up being a successful tactic and Medvedev was able to pull off the victory.
In the victory over Felix Auger-Aliassime, Daniil Medvedev hit 15 Aces compared to 9 double faults. He won 75% of his first service points and saved an amazing 9 of 11 breakpoints. Medvedev's ability to deny Auger-Aliassime the break, even in the games Medvedev was struggling, ended up being the difference in the contest.
Stefanos Tsitsipas won in straight sets and didn't need to summon the spirit of any former champions in order to get the victory. Stefanos Tsitsipas scored a routine 6-3, 6-4, 6-2 victory over Jannik Sinner.
Stefanos Tsitsipas was an underdog by ATP odds at +120 to open and Sinner took the money. So the market was against Tsitsipas, but he was able to prove the market wrong. Daniil Medvedev is 6–2 against Stefanos Tsitsipas. Yet Tsitsipas has won 2 of the last 3 contests between the men.
Most recently Tsitsipas defeated Medvedev on the slow clay courts of the French Open, so one would think that it's not predictive of victory. Yet those who have watched the two men's rivalry throughout their careers know that Tsitsipas had a mental block against Medvedev.
Even winning in favorable conditions was a step forward for Stefanos. Medvedev was able to win their meeting in the semifinals last year, and this will be a semifinal rematch. In the 2021 Australian Open, Medvedev beat Tsitsipas 6-4, 6-2, 7-5. On quicker surfaces, Medvedev's game and style of play have the advantage.
I like the over in this match. Both players have excellent serves. Tsitsipas has overcome his fear and intimidation of Medvedev. He will not roll over easily in this one. I expect Medvedev to win but the ATP odds are properly priced for his victory. I do not think it will be an easy victory, however, which is why the over is the best play. Our second semifinal bet is over 39.5 (-110).
Tennis Pick: Over 39.5 (-110) with Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
