Winless Arizona travels to Eugene to take on the third-ranked Ducks. Is Arizona’s task impossible? You bet it is. Read ahead for a betting pick. Top sportsbooks have released their NCAAF odds for Saturday night’s contest between Arizona and Oregon. Arizona has a monumental challenge ahead of itself, but the odds, in my view, even fail to reflect just how tall Arizona’s task is. For reasons that I will explain, you should play the big favorite for this nationally televised game.
Arizona Wildcats vs. Oregon Ducks
Saturday, September 25, 2021, – 10:30 PM EDT at Autzen Stadium
The Odds
Some bettors are automatically hesitant to bet on games in which there is a large spread. But I think that this is an awful attitude to have, one that will lead to missed opportunities for profit. While some games with large spreads may seem worth staying away from, the same holds true for games with smaller spreads.
In any game, regardless of how large the spread is, we can see if there is value or not. Regarding the game between Arizona and Oregon, oddsmakers are struggling to account for just how bad the winless Wildcats are as they are repeatedly struggling to come anywhere close to covering the spread in their games.
Two weeks ago, they were favored by 1.5 points to beat San Diego State. They lost that game by 24 points. Last week, they were favored by 26.5 points to beat Northern Arizona, an FCS school. Embarrassingly, they lost by two points. So, in their last two games, they needed to score over 25 points more than they actually did in order to cover the spread.
Clueless
Arizona head coach Jedd Fisch’s post-game comments offer a disturbing insight into his team’s quarterback situation. He talked about, for example, Arizona’s third-string quarterback is in the game where he’s supposed to run a bootleg to his right side but ends up 12 yards to his left. Forget discerning whether Wildcat quarterbacks are good or bad. They often don’t even know what they’re doing on the field.
Will they develop a stronger idea of what to do as the season progresses? I would think so. After all, these are only freshmen and a transfer. Note for your sports betting that they hardly have experience in the field. But these aren’t problems that fix themselves in a week. Wildcat quarterbacks, though, even apart from the disturbing question of whether they know what play to run, are impossible to like right now.
The situation in Tucson is that a Wildcat quarterback still hasn’t established himself as the team’s starter, for which reason, for example, the third-stringer was playing against Northern Arizona. Right now, Arizona is a team without a quarterback and it’s looking as far as the third-stringer for help.
Other Offensive Issues
There is also minimal support for whoever is playing quarterback for the Wildcats. The leading rushers average 4.6 and three YPC, respectively. Drake Anderson, the one with 4.6 YPC, inflated his total by performing well against FCS Northern Arizona. Between the inept passing and the lusterless running, one common theme is the poor play of the offensive line.
Wildcat quarterbacks receive minimal protection, running backs see a lack of gaps through which to run, and offensive linemen are, like their quarterback, frequently out of position. Keep in mind for your best bets that the above information helps explain why Arizona really ought to be dogged by more points.
Oregon’s Situation
The only reason why one may want to bet against Oregon is its betting situation: if the Ducks are coming off a huge win, they might have a let-down game; likewise, if they have a big game coming up, they might be looking past Arizona. But no such negative situation exists. Oregon is coming off an easy win against Stony Brook and faces an unintimidating 2-1 Stanford squad next week.
In fact, the situation for the Ducks is positive because Saturday’s game is their conference opener. At least since Mario Cristobal became the team’s head coach in 2018, the Ducks have been the right play in every Pac-12 opener. They didn’t cover in 2018, but it’s hard to regret betting on the underdog when the game is tied after four quarters. In each of the following two seasons, they covered as approximately 12-point favorites with the largest margin of victory coming last year in their 35-14 win over Stanford.
Oregon Offense vs. Arizona Defense
One problem with the Wildcat defense is its inability to stop the run. This inability is a repeated feature in its games. Last week, for example, FCS Northern Arizona’s leading running back amassed 127 rushing yards on 4.7 YPC and a touchdown. Behind a well-stocked, relatively physical offensive line, Oregon will simply be able to feed Travis Dye and especially CJ Verdell, both of whom are averaging over five YPC.
The game-plan doesn’t need to be complicated at all for the Ducks to run away with this game. While Arizona’s defense won’t give Oregon problems, Arizona’s FCS-level offense will resemble Stony Brook’s, quality-wise, which mustered seven points in last week’s 48-7 loss to Oregon. For the above reasons, invest in the Ducks with your NCAAF picks.
NCAAF Picks: Ducks -28 at -125 with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
