The Utah Jazz (8-5) will host the Philadelphia 76ers (8-6) to close a double-header on TNT this Tuesday evening. The 76ers are 4-2 on the road and the Jazz is 4-2 at home, but Philadelphia faces another uphill battle as Joel Embiid remains out with COVID. But what about the NBA odds?
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Utah Jazz
Tuesday, November 16, 2021 – 10:00 PM EST at Vivint Arena
The Jazz (7-6 ATS) are an 8.5-point favorite against the 76ers (7-7 ATS) at BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks. Philadelphia was 8-2 to start the season, but ever since Embiid received his positive COVID test, the 76ers are 0-4 without their superstar. If there is a silver lining, it’s that every loss has been by single digits, so the team is still competing hard. Can they at least get a cover in this one?
What Are the 76ers Without Embiid?
Embiid is one of several star athletes currently dealing with COVID. His absence for Philadelphia is magnified given the team’s rocky situation with Ben Simmons not playing.
Last season, the 76ers were 11-11 when Embiid was inactive, and that includes a playoff win over Washington where Simmons shined with a triple-double. Simmons helped keep the 76ers afloat in several of those games Embiid missed, but he is not an option for the team right now to get through this rough patch.
Also, last season, the 76ers had a plus-12.4 advantage in net rating with Embiid on the court compared to him being off, according to Basketball Reference. On a smaller sample size this season, the 76ers are plus-7.7 points better with Embiid on the court, so it’s still a big advantage they are missing.
Tobias Harris has to pick up the slack as the team’s leading scorer. He was also out for the first two games Embiid missed after his COVID test, but Harris returned for the last two games and scored a season-high 32 points in Saturday’s loss to the Pacers. The 76ers are 0-4 this season when Harris attempts at least 18 shots, but there is no better option now.
But the good news is the offense is not completely dependent on Embiid. The 76ers still rank No. 1 in offensive rating (114.3), No. 1 in FG%, and No. 2 in 3P% this season despite Embiid’s eFG% being 48.2%, which would be a career-low. Even over the last four games without Embiid, Philadelphia’s offensive rating in that time (111.5) ranks 9th in the NBA.
The problem this season is the defense as the 76ers rank 23rd in defensive rating (109.5) and that has fallen to 28th over the last four games (117.0). Philadelphia has allowed at least 115 points in three straight games after not doing it once in the first 11 games this season.
The 76ers are 0-5 this season when they allow more than 105 points, so a high-flying offensive team could be a problem for them without Embiid. It just so happens that Utah is 8-1 is when scoring over 105 points and 0-4 when it does not.
Utah: Still a Balanced Team?
The Jazz had a fantastic regular season last year, finishing No. 1 in net rating. Utah is still very good this year, ranked No. 3 in net rating, but the defense has slipped to the No. 11 spot.
Like Philadelphia, the Jazz has lost four of their last five games, but there is no big injury to point to as the cause. Utah won the only game star Donovan Mitchell missed this season as Utah’s starting five has a combined three games missed to injury so far.
Utah was 0-2 in the games guard Mike Conley missed, and he was not very assertive in the two home losses to the Heat and Pacers in the last week. Conley scored 6 points in each game and was 4-of-13 from the field. He had been averaging 15.7 points per game prior to this little slump.
The three-point shot has not been the weapon it was for Utah a season ago. While the Jazz still takes a league-high 49.0% of their field goals from three, they are only hitting 32.1% of the time, which ranks 26th this season.
In recent losses to the Pacers and Magic, the Jazz failed to crack 30% from three. They are also the only two games in the last two seasons (96 games total including playoffs) where the Jazz failed to hit at least 10 threes.
Utah has shot under 35% from three in 10 of the first 13 games this season (76.9%). Last season, they only did that in 22 of their 83 games (26.5%). The Jazz has to fix the three-point shot in a hurry.
Prediction
For a matchup between the top two teams in offensive rating, neither comes in hot. But the players that Philadelphia will not have in this matchup draw me towards Utah.
They lose Embiid’s help at the rim, which is bad news against Rudy Gobert (15.3 rebounds per game) and a Utah team that is No. 2 in rebound percentage and No. 1 in second-chance points. They can’t guard Mitchell with Ben Simmons. They won’t even have Danny Green available after he left Saturday’s game with a hamstring injury following a season-high 14 points.
The 76ers have been losing close without Embiid, but they are still 0-4 ATS in the last four games as well. I am going to back the Jazz for your NBA picks this Tuesday night.
NBA Pick: Jazz -8.5 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
