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California Sports Betting Ballot 2026: Evidence, Sources & Methodology (BMR)

This page documents the sources behind our California Sports Betting Legality & 2026 Ballot Tracker, and explains how we estimate (and update) two numbers: (1) the chance sports betting appears on the November 3, 2026 ballot and (2) the chance it passes if it reaches voters. 

This is an evidence-and-methods page — not legal advice and not a guarantee of outcomes.

What the CA tracker box is claiming

On our California page, we summarize the situation like this:

• California does not currently allow state-regulated sports betting.
• The next realistic statewide vote window would be November 3, 2026 — but only if stakeholders align and a proposal qualifies by official deadlines.

Current BMR publishable estimates (as-of February 10, 2026)

  1. P (Ballot 2026) = 23% (Low / Uncertain)
  2. P (Pass | Ballot) = 28% (Unfavorable)

Evidence & sources (what we verify, and why it matters)

  1. Official ballot-measure status (California Secretary of State = “source of truth”)
    We check two SOS pages because they answer different questions:

    • Qualified Ballot Measures (Nov 3, 2026): what is already on the ballot (if anything). As of our check date, SOS shows no measures qualified for the Nov 3, 2026 election on that page.
    • Eligible Statewide Initiative & Referendum Measures: what the SOS currently lists as eligible for a given election window. As of our check date, the SOS page shows “None at this time.”

Deadline rule we anchor to

The SOS states a measure must qualify by the 131st day before the election to appear on that November ballot.

(For Nov 3, 2026, 131 days prior is June 25, 2026.)

  1. The most recent statewide sports-betting vote (2022 baseline)
    California voters rejected both sports-betting-related ballot propositions in 2022:
    • Proposition 26 (tribal sports wagering framework): Yes 32.6% / No 67.4%
    • Proposition 27 (statewide online/mobile framework): Yes 17.8% / No 82.2%
    How we use this: those results are the hard baseline for “approval if it reaches the ballot,” unless credible, current statewide polling on a specific 2026 proposal exists.
  2. “2026 is only realistic if stakeholders align” (qualitative constraint)
    Multiple credible coverage streams emphasize that a future sports-betting ballot effort hinges on stakeholder alignment (tribal interests, commercial operators, and political viability).

Methodology (the formulas behind the two numbers)

We publish two probabilities:

  1. P(Ballot 2026): chance a sports betting measure appears on the Nov 3, 2026 ballot
  2. P(Pass | Ballot): chance it passes if it appears

These are estimates. We update them when the underlying evidence changes (especially SOS status, public campaign activity, and credible polling).

Model 1: Chance sports betting appears on the 2026 ballot (P(Ballot 2026))

Inputs (each scored 0.0 to 1.0)
We score five factors:

  1. Stakeholder alignment (tribal + commercial + political viability)
  2. Public proposal readiness (draft language + public campaign structure)
  3. Signature path (visible petition/circulation progress consistent with SOS timelines)
  4. Funding readiness (credible funding signals for signature gathering + campaign)
  5. Time remaining vs. deadlines (realistic runway to qualify by the SOS deadline rule)

Formula (simple + explainable)
P(Ballot 2026) =
0.35Alignment + 0.20ProposalReadiness + 0.20SignaturePath + 0.15Funding + 0.10*TimeRemaining
(Then clamped to a practical range of 0.05 to 0.95.)

How SOS status constrains our scoring (important)
If SOS shows no qualified measures and no eligible initiatives for Nov 2026, we keep ProposalReadiness and SignaturePath conservative until there is public, verifiable filing/circulation progress.

Current inputs (as-of Feb 10, 2026) and math
Given “none qualified” + “none eligible” at the SOS, and no public circulation pathway we can cite, we use:

  • Alignment = 0.25
    • ProposalReadiness = 0.10
    • SignaturePath = 0.05
    • Funding = 0.40
    • TimeRemaining = 0.55

Calculation:
P(Ballot 2026) = (0.350.25) + (0.200.10) + (0.200.05) + (0.150.40) + (0.10*0.55)
= 0.0875 + 0.02 + 0.01 + 0.06 + 0.055
= 0.2325 → 23%

Publishable number (right now): 23% (Low / Uncertain)

Model 2: Chance voters approve sports betting if it reaches the ballot (P(Pass | Ballot))

Baseline anchor: 2022 statewide results
We use the 2022 results as the baseline anchor:
BaselineYes = average(Prop 26 Yes, Prop 27 Yes)
BaselineYes = average(0.326, 0.178) = 0.252 (25.2%)

Adjustments (scenario-based, small on purpose)
Because we do not have credible, current statewide polling on a specific 2026 proposition to plug in, we only make modest scenario adjustments:

  • CoalitionBonus (genuine unified sponsors): +0.00 to +0.10
    • ClarityBonus (simple, consumer-protection-forward measure): +0.00 to +0.07
    • OppositionPenalty (credible, well-funded opposition): −0.02 to −0.10
    • FramingPenalty (“out-of-state operator” / trust framing risk): −0.02 to −0.08

Formula
P(Pass | Ballot) = BaselineYes + CoalitionBonus + ClarityBonus − OppositionPenalty − FramingPenalty
(clamped between 0.05 and 0.75)

Current example (as-of Feb 10, 2026)
With no verified unified coalition and a history of strong opposition dynamics in CA, we use conservative-but-not-zero improvements:

  • BaselineYes = 0.252
    • CoalitionBonus = +0.06
    • ClarityBonus = +0.04
    • OppositionPenalty = −0.04
    • FramingPenalty = −0.03

P(Pass | Ballot) = 0.252 + 0.06 + 0.04 − 0.04 − 0.03 = 0.282 → 28%

Publishable number (right now): 28% (Unfavorable)

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