Jayden Daniels took the NFL by storm in his rookie season, leading the Washington Commanders to the NFC Championship Game. This was a team that was expected to finish last in the NFC East, so what Daniels was able to accomplish was truly remarkable, especially for a first-year quarterback.
That brings us to this year’s most hyped rookie quarterback: Tennessee Titans’ first overall pick, Cam Ward. After a dominant senior season at Miami that included 4,313 passing yards and 39 touchdowns, Ward comes with much less hype than Daniels did.
But early results have been promising. Throughout training camp and preseason, Ward has been praised for his exemplary work ethic and leadership skills. That leads us to question, can Ward be this year’s Daniels? A rookie quarterback who exceeds expectations and surprisingly takes his projected last-place team to a playoff berth?
Let’s dive in with an analysis of rookie quarterbacks at Bookmakers Review.
The AFC South Is a Winnable Division
Ward is in the right division to make noise, as the AFC South is considered to be among the weakest divisions in the NFL.
The Houston Texans project to have one of the worst offensive lines in the league, especially after trading stud offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are a team in transition, hoping that their latest head coach, Liam Coen, can finally get Trevor Lawrence to play up to his potential.
The Indianapolis Colts are starting Daniel Jones at quarterback. The former New York Giant has been one of the worst starters in football for the last two seasons, so expectations are low.
With that in mind, if Ward comes as good as advertised, he can elevate his teammates, including veteran wideout Calvin Ridley. This is a gunslinging passer who isn’t afraid to take shots downfield, which is perfect for Ridley’s skillset as a deep threat.
BetOnline currently has the Titans at +700 odds to win the AFC South. Given their wild card at quarterback in Ward, the Titans have a wide range of outcomes. They could finish anywhere from 1st or 4th in this division. With that in mind, sprinkling a bet on them to win the division isn’t a bad idea.
First Round Rookie Quarterbacks Since 2020
Let’s take a look at first-round rookie starting quarterbacks since 2020, examining whether or not their teams made the playoffs. For this analysis, we focused on quarterbacks who made at least 10 starts in their debut seasons.
- Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears (2024): missed playoffs
- Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders (2024): made playoffs
- Drake Maye, New England Patriots (2024): missed playoffs
- Bo Nix, Denver Broncos (2024): made playoffs
- Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers (2023): missed playoffs
- C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans (2023): made playoffs
- Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers (2022): missed playoffs
- Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars (2021): missed playoffs
- Zach Wilson, New York Jets (2021): missed playoffs
- Mac Jones, New England Patriots (2021): made playoffs
- Justin Fields, Chicago Bears (2021): missed playoffs
- Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (2020): missed playoffs
- Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (2020): missed playoffs
Since 2020, four of 13 first-round quarterbacks (30.8% hit rate) who made at least 10 starts led their respective teams to the playoffs.
But the hit rate looks even better in recent years. Since 2023, 50% of first-rounders with the same parameters made the playoffs.
Considering how weak the AFC South is, the Titans have a shot. However, their path is likely by winning the division, as a wild card spot would be tough considering how many good quarterbacks are in the AFC, such as Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson.
While it’s going to be tough for Ward to approach Daniels’ rookie season, there’s a chance that he wildly exceeds expectations in 2025.
