Im so glad I dont bet hoops all year. No spread is out of reach unless its like 20 pts. Miami covered the entire game only to lose by 10. Outscored 6-0 in the last 50 secs after battling for 39 mins
Also, all that analytical bs is looking at it from the chances of converting. Its not looking at game flow, the defense you are playing, game momentum, back up qb etc etc