NFL Divisional Round Playoff Last Chance Value Picks: Three Marvelous Matchups (Archive)
NFL Pick: Giants +7.5 (-109) at GTbets (visit our GTbets Review)
We are down to the final eight teams in the NFL playoffs and few outside of Minnesota will argue these are the eight-best squads.
The NFL Divisional Round betting odds are set. Let’s explain what looks to be the best value for NFL picks.
Make sure to check out the best US Betting Sites available in order to make your bets.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Buffalo Bills
Sunday, January 22, 2023 – 03:00 PM EST Highmark Stadium
On your computer or phone (as opposed to paper as the old saying went) the best matchup of the weekend. Each team expects to reach the Super Bowl and win it and this will be the first of three extremely difficult challenges to accomplish starting this Sunday.
Though many factors conceivably will decide the outcome of this tremendous matchup, there are two that stand out at least until the game starts.
Firstly, Josh Allen and Buffalo have committed three turnovers in each of their past three contests.
Some have been bad luck, others execution, and the rest completely on Allen taking reckless chances. Cincinnati has come up with 11 turnovers on defense in their last four skirmishes and with Joe Burrow, he can turn those into points.
Secondly, the Bengals got to the Super Bowl a season ago in spite of a well-below-average offensive line.
It was completely rebuilt for 2022 and it took the first half of the season for it to finally gel.
In the last few weeks, there has been one injury after another for the Cincy O-Line and Baltimore exposed them. How will the Bengals fix or cope with this conundrum?
Bills Create Problems for Cincinnati in the Trenches
The point spread at 5.5 is in the “dead zone” which likely helps out the sportsbooks not worrying about a 3, 4, 6 or 7.
In looking at this conflict, Buffalo’s issues are correctable. Allen has to play smarter, be less of a risk-taker, and put the ball away to prevent miscues.
Cincy coach Zac Taylor might not have a running game (101 yards in eight quarters vs. Ravens) and be forced to have Burrow throw the ball quickly to slow the Bills' pass rush.
We know the Bengals are 9-1 as road underdogs. We also know Buffalo is 10-2 ATS at home games after scoring 25 points or more in straight games.
If Allen limits his team’s turnovers to one or less, the Buffalo defense will stop Burrow often enough to build a lead of double digits, which is what the Bills do best.
Score Prediction: Bills 30 – Bengals 20
NFL Pick: Bills -5.5 (-109) at GTbets
Dallas Cowboys vs. San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, January 22, 2023 – 08:30 PM EST at Levi’s Stadium
Though Dallas can be a maddening team for their fans and football bettors to follow, when they play as they did against Tampa Bay, they appear to be a Super Bowl contender.
While Philadelphia is regarded as having the best roster in the NFL, San Francisco is highly regarded as having the best team. The 49ers have won 11 games in a row, covering the point spread in nine of them. That is domination, though some will complain the Niners' schedule was not imposing. (FYI: The unbeaten 1972 Miami Dolphins had a Top 5 easy slate that season.)
San Francisco, besides their dominance, is only a four-point favorite against the Cowboys at home and NFL clubs on a winning streak of 11 or more are 1-11 ATS.
Dallas In a Very Tough Position
Though the Cowboys played a superb contest in Tampa, the Buccaneers had a losing record to start the game and added to that after facing Dallas.
By now you are aware Mike McCarthy’s squad is on a short week which has been well discussed.
What has not been talked about as much is this is the Cowboys' fourth consecutive road game and that might be a bigger issue. In the regular season, the NFL tries to avoid three-game road trips because that is an arduous task no matter who you are. Now make the last two do-or-die playoff appearances and that becomes a very tall order to accomplish.
While many are counting on the Dallas defense to rattle Brock Purdy into miscues, last week was only the second time since Week 5 the ‘Boys didn’t commit a turnover. And the 49ers have generated 2.2 miscues in their past nine contests. Now add in the 49ers are averaging 34.5 PPG since Purdy came in for an injured Jimmy G.
With Kyle Shanahan’s crew 11-2 ATS versus teams averaging 350 or more yards a game in the second half of the season, since last year, winning by 6.8 PPG, Frisco is our call.
And, of course, football fans from the Big D or the Bay Area who are looking to bet on this game should be sure to check out our top-rated Texas or California betting sites.
Score Prediction: 49ers 24 – Cowboys 17
NFL Pick: 49ers -4 (-109) at GTbets (visit our GTbets Review)
New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Saturday, January 21, 2023 - 08:15 PM EST at Lincoln Financial Field
After six battles of division foes in the Super Wild Card Round, we have just one this weekend and it stands out.
Top-seeded Philadelphia is rested and at home. The Eagles battered the Giants in New Jersey six weeks ago 48-22 as a touchdown favorite. They met again in Philly in the last week of the regular season, but that offered no insight with New York resting key players and the Birds bored.
Philadelphia’s mission is much the same as the initial meeting. Overwhelm the G-Men early and make them play from behind. Philly built a 24-7 which took the New York fans out of the contest. Do that this time at home and their fans will be spitting more venom than usual.
Quarterback Daniel Jones and his teammates have to weather the storm early. They did that in Minnesota last week and will need to again.
Big Blue Has to Shift The Pressure
Let’s face it, despite reaching this plateau, like Jacksonville, New York has no expectations and can play loose. Philadelphia is the No.1 seed in the NFC and at worst expects to play for the conference championship.
The Eagles' run defense remains pedestrian, ranked 17th, which is key for Coach Daboll’s bunch. If they can run with Saquon Barkley, Matt Breida, and Jones, that sets up an ever-improving Giants passing game.
New York will give up some points, what they cannot do is allow them in bunches and make Jalen Hurts beat them by throwing and moving the chains.
Big Blue is 14-4 ATS this season and 8-1 ATS on the road. The familiarity should help New York and those making NFL picks, understand that the No.1 seeds are 13-25-1 ATS in this round.
Remember, fans from the Big Apple or the Keystone State who are looking to make a wager on this game should be sure to check out our top-rated New York or Pennsylvania betting sites..
Score Prediction: Eagles 27 – Giants 24
NFL Pick: Giants +7.5 (-109) at GTbets