With the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets both lacking in value, the Over should be the better MLB pick for Friday’s contest.
Friday, August 13, 2021 – 07:10 PM EDT at Citi Field
The regression is real. Look at what’s happened to the New York Mets the last couple of months; after leading the National League East despite a pedestrian run differential, the Mets now find themselves in a three-way dogfight for first place, dropping back to 59-55 (minus-6.58 betting units) as we go to press. And they still have room to get worse, judging by their minus-13 differential.
A team like this would normally make an excellent fade candidate for your MLB picks, but the Mets will be hosting the Los Angeles Dodgers (69-46, minus-9.80 units) this Friday, and while the Dodgers are “due” for some better luck, they’re still an overvalued commodity in this matchup, checking in as –143 road favorites at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review). Looks like we’ll be hitting up those totals again.
Nothing wrong with that. We won’t be recommending the Mets, either; FiveThirtyEight only project them to win 43 percent of the time, which adds up to a fair moneyline of +133 using the world’s sexiest gambling calculator, the BMR Odds Converter. As it happens, Gtbets (visit our GTbets Review) have New York at +133 on their MLB odds board, so if you want to bet a small sum on the Mets for cosmetic purposes while you try to get some bigger, sharper-looking bets down on the props market, you can’t go too wrong.
There might be more value with the Over, though: Julio Urias (3.41 FIP) is ready to take the mound for Los Angeles, and he’s got the Over at 14-7-2 this year. There isn’t much in Urias’ peripheral stats to suggest he’s going to regress either way – his FIP is exactly the same as his ERA. He’s performed well this year, but he’s no Clayton Kershaw (3.00 FIP), or Walker Buehler (3.12 FIP) for that matter.
The Dodgers usually have the pitching advantage when they play, and that appears to be the case Friday night with Tylor Megill (3.93 FIP) starting for New York. Who’s Tylor Megill? An eighth-round draft pick out of the Arizona Wildcats program in 2018, Megill was called up by the Mets in late June to address the injuries in their rotation; he’s led the team to six wins in nine starts, enough to keep them active in the NL East race alongside the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves.
There’s been some good luck along the way. Megill also has the Under at 6-3, but that’s partly due to his very large 82.9 percent of runners left stranded. More of those runners are going to find home plate eventually. Both Megill and Urias have given up quite a few home runs this year, so with game-time temperatures soaring into the mid-80s, and the Dodgers boasting one of the most powerful batting orders in baseball, we’re happy to take the Over for a small wager. It’s just the right thing to do.
MLB Pick: Over 9 (+105) at YouWager (visit our YouWager Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.