UFC 269 Prop Betting Picks: The Perfect Proposition

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An Octagon girl circles between rounds during an UFC Fight Night. Matthew Stockman/Getty Images/AFP

The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to Las Vegas for the final pay-per-view event of 2021. The UFC fight odds are now available for us to delve into some perfect prop betting picks for UFC 269 – headlined by two championship bouts between Alex Oliveira vs. Dustin Poirier and Amanda Nunes vs. Julianna Pena.

Dominick Cruz vs. Pedro Munhoz

UFC 269 Bantamweight Bout

Saturday, December 11, 2021 – 09:04 PM EST at T-Mobile Arena

Dominick Cruz (23-3-0) is the longest-standing UFC bantamweight competitor on the entire roster. Despite suffering long periods of inactivity during his career, we cannot ignore the accomplishments he's achieved since arriving from the WEC in 2011.

When the UFC introduced a bantamweight division following their merger with WEC, Cruz became the first-ever 135lb champion and successfully defended his strap against the likes of Demetrious Johnson and Takeya Mizugaki. An injury forced Cruz to relinquish the title, but he resumed position by overcoming TJ Dillashaw to become a two-time champion upon his return.

Pedro Munhoz (19-6-0) joined the UFC when Cruz was side-lined in 2014, and slowly but surely, the Brazilian standout has guillotine choked and power punched his way to stand amongst the division finest.

Recent losses to Aljamain Sterling, Frankie Edgar, and Jose Aldo have put setbacks on Munhoz's championship opportunities. Still, this weekend, a significant win over Cruz could realign the Brazilian native with the division's title challengers.

Cruz vs. Munhoz Fight Breakdown

Dominick Cruz possesses some of the finest footwork we've ever witnessed inside the cage. His elusive movement and fight intelligence is the reason why he's a two-time champion and an active legend of the sport.

When facing Munhoz, Cruz needs to avoid a firefight and protect his neck, a task I deem simple for a man who excels in staying and range whilst piecing his opponents up. The power, submission threat, and finishing ability all favor Munhoz, however, he'll have to catch Cruz first, and that's no simple task. Cruz's ability to cut angles becomes more prevalent inside the larger cage, and I can't picture any result besides a unanimous decision to the former champion.

UFC 269 Prop Betting Picks and UFC Odds

The available UFC odds with Bookmaker Review surprisingly favor Munhoz on the moneyline. Although gambling ethics would suggest Cruz's hopefuls to take his underdog ML, he's notably been a decision-winning machine for the majority of his career.

UFC 269 Prop Betting Pick: Dominick Cruz to Win on Points (+145) (1u returns 1.45u profit) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Dominick Cruz to Win on Points (+145)
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Sean O'Malley vs. Raulian Paiva

UFC 269 Bantamweight Bout

Saturday, December 11, 2021 - 09:04 PM EST at T-Mobile Arena

Without question, Sean O'Malley (14-1-0) is the most intriguing fighter on the roster who isn't ranked inside the top ten. Already becoming a millionaire aged 27 could teach the next generation of mixed martial artists how to make the most from their career upstart, but they'll have to deliver a breath-taking highlight reel to hold the attention.

Raulian Paiva (21-3-0) has been underrated since his promotional debut. Still, now with a 3-fight win streak and a chance to mix himself within the division's elite, he'll thrive on attempting to derail the hype-train that is "Sugar" Sean O'Malley.

O'Malley vs. Paiva Fight Breakdown

Paiva was fortunate to receive the judges' nod during his previous bout versus Kyler Phillips to keep it brutally honest. And Phillips, a teammate of O'Malley, doesn't possess the same striking deliverance as his friend but still managed to drop Paiva on occasions.

What worries me for Paiva isn't his toughness; it isn't his submission ability because all of those are in check. However, his lack of defensive awareness should be a huge red flag when facing the elite level striking of "Sugar".

I predict O'Malley lands a disgustingly high number of strikes until the eventual stoppage, in a similar fashion to the O'Malley vs. Moutinho bout, but potentially worse.

UFC 269 Prop Betting Picks and UFC Odds

The available UFC odds with Bookmaker Review obviously side with the fan-favorite O'Malley. Still, I'm more intrigued by the under 2½ rounds prop, which is currently sitting close to even money.

Considering his impressive finishing ability and highlight reel, and even the sneak submission attacks that Paiva could land, the under 2 ½ rounds is a no-brainer for our second UFC pick, in my opinion.

UFC 269 Prop Betting Pick: Under 2½ rounds (-120) [1.20u returns 1u profit] at GTbets (visit our GTbets Review)

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Under 2½ rounds (-120)
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UFC 269 Main Card and Odds

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.