UFC 269: Poirier vs. Oliveira First Look, Betting Picks, Odds, and Predictions

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The UFC returns to our screens for a highly stacked pay-per-view event from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Former UFC Interim lightweight champion Dustin Poirier looks to regain his championship status when challenging the newly crowned 155lb titleholder Charles Oliveira.

Read on for our complete betting guide taking a first look at Poirier and Oliveira, including updated UFC odds and our free expert UFC betting picks, predictions, and analysis.

Dustin Poirier vs. Charles Oliveira

UFC Lightweight Championship Main Event Bout

Saturday, December 11, 2021 – 09:04 PM EST at the T-Mobile Arena

Charles “Do Bronx” Oliveira (31-8-0)

Thirty-one professional martial arts victories later, and Charles “Do Bronx” Oliveira has reached the pinnacle moment of his career. He captured the vacant UFC lightweight strap when conquering the complex challenge of Michael Chandler at UFC 262.

Oliveira has been manifesting this moment since making his UFC debut in 2010. The 32-year-old Brazilian native will now hope to replicate a historical reign as the legendary countrymen before him, like Jose Aldo and Anderson Silva.

With that said, Oliveira had already etched his name into the MMA history books with or without the gold. 19 of his 31 professional wins have been achieved through submission stoppages, as he now owns more stoppage victories (17) than any other fighter in UFC history.

Born and raised in Sao Paulo, Brazil, to no surprise it was Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Oliveira’s first martial arts discipline. Since the tender age of nine, his eagerness to learn eventually earned his black belt under Ericson Cardoso and Jorge Patino in 2010.

Oliveira is shamefully underrated during a period of the company’s history where said-lightweight division is one of the toughest on the planet. Aside from his aristocratic jiu-jitsu offense, Oliveira has gained a vicious striking output during his UFC tenure, which in turn, is another asset of “Do Bronx” that is regularly overlooked.

Charles Oliveira MMA Accomplishments

  • UFC Lightweight Championship (One time, current)
  • UFC Performance of the Night (Eleven times)
  • UFC Fight of the Night (Three times)
  • UFC Submission of the Night (Three times)
  • Most submission wins in UFC history (14)
  • Most finishes in UFC history (17)
  • Most Performance of the Night awards in UFC history (11)
  • Second most Post Fight bonuses in UFC history (17) (One behind Donald Cerrone)

Charles Oliveira Best Available Odds: +150 at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

Charles Oliveira walks out of the cage. Carmen Mandato/Getty Images/AFP.

Dustin Poirier (28-6-0)

Following consecutive stoppage victories over the world’s most famous martial artist, Conor McGregor, the “Diamond” Dustin Poirier now has the fight game in the palm of his hand.

Louisiana strong, fan-favorite of many, whichever stance you take with Dustin Poirier, it’s undeniable that he’s one of the most diverse and dangerous fighters on the planet.

Having spent the previous decade on the UFC roster, it’s surprising the paths of Oliveira and Poirier haven’t already crossed. But where better to deliver two of the most experienced UFC veterans' first contest than for a championship in front of a screaming crowd?

Poirier’s lone loss within the previous six years was to the most incredible lightweight of all time, Khabib Nurmagomedov; outside of this defeat, Poirier has looked almost unbreakable. Notably, Poirier’s path to greatness has been against the most challenging lightweights on the planet.

Dustin Poirier MMA Accomplishments

⦁ UFC Interim Lightweight Champion (One time)
⦁ UFC Fight of the Night (Seven times)
⦁ UFC Submission of the Night (One time)
⦁ UFC Performance of the Night (Four times)
⦁ Most knockout victories in UFC Lightweight division history (8)

Dustin Poirier Available Odds: -165 at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

Dustin Poirier (R) lands a punch on Conor McGregor. Stacy Revere/Getty Images/AFP.

Oliveira Fight Style and How Can Oliveira Defeat Poirier?

The owner of most submissions in UFC history, the clear game plan for Oliveira will be to grab a neck, pull an arm or find an unorthodox submission hold that Poirier can potentially fall victim to.

The blueprint for Oliveira is to finish this fight the way he knows best and do it early. We’ve often seen his submission finishing rate decline once fights surpass the 3rd round; going into deep waters with Poirier will cost the Brazilian’s likelihood of success. Given the fact that a submission has stopped Poirier on two occasions throughout 34 career bouts, this path to victory for the champ could be more arduous than we anticipate.

Poirier Fight Style and How Can Poirier Defeat Oliveira?

Precision, patience, and a well-timed boxing offense are Poirier’s most desirable attributes, and in a striking battle, he’s certainly going to own the advantage. We also cannot neglect his own Brazilian jiu-jitsu credentials that saw the Louisiana native earn his black belt honors under Tim Credeur.

Poirier will additionally own a wrestling advantage, but I doubt this approach will be relevant when Oliveira presents countless threats from a grounded position.

Poirier will walk Oliveira down and unleash a striking output that’s just unmatchable for the defending champ. A probing jab, setting up his body hooks, and power shots will eventually take their toll on Oliveira’s durability, and “The Diamond” will stop the Brazilian inside the distance.

Dustin Poirier vs. Charles Oliveira Betting Picks and UFC 269 Odds

The available odds at Bookmakers Review opened with Poirier as the betting favorite, a rare occasion where the champion enters a matchup as the underdog.

The oddsmakers aren’t stupid. They recognize that Oliveira’s best chance of success is through a submission finish – a factor I can’t and won’t rely on with my bankroll.

UFC Pick: Dustin Poirier to Win (-165) [1.65u returns 1u profit] at Bovada

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Dustin Poirier to Win (-165)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.