NFL Pick: Dak Prescott Over 0.5 Passes Intercepted (-170) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The NFL’s Wild Card weekend concludes Monday night with the Dallas Cowboys (12-5) playing at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9). Dallas lost 19-3 in Week 1 to Tampa, but the Chargers’ 27-point collapse Saturday night in Jacksonville raises a very high bar for any team to top that disappointment.
At this point, a Dak Prescott pick parade that gives the game to Tampa wouldn’t register much shock value after what Jacksonville and the Chargers did. On the other hand, Jacksonville won a playoff game despite losing the turnover battle 5-0, so maybe there is renewed hope for a Dallas team that has been very sloppy with the football coming into this one.
Amidst the doom and gloom, the Cowboys are still a 2.5-point road favorite with a total of 45.5 points at the NFL odds boards. We have our favorite prop picks for this matchup.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Monday, January 16, 2023 – 08:15 PM EST at Raymond James Stadium
Dak Prescott (Dallas Cowboys)
- Over 0.5 Passes Intercepted
- Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
It has been a strange season for Dak Prescott. He was awful in Week 1 against Tampa Bay, losing 19-3 after exiting early with a thumb injury that required surgery. When he returned in Week 7, the Cowboys started rolling offensively, and despite a lot of turnovers, Prescott led Dallas to at least 27 points in nine straight games, tied for the seventh-longest streak in NFL history.
But that all came crashing down in Week 18 in Washington when Prescott again struggled and finished with 128 yards in a 26-6 loss, his worst game since Week 1 against Tampa Bay, his first playoff opponent.
Prescott has the highest interception rate (3.8%) of his career this season. No quarterback threw more interceptions (15) than he did, and he only ranked 19th in pass attempts after missing five full games.
Not all the picks have been his fault as the Cowboys are tipping several of these balls to defenders, but it has been a careless month or two with the ball.
A Good Day for the Bucs
That almost surely is something an aggressive defense like Tampa will make Prescott pay for. Look for the Buccaneers to keep the interception streak going as Prescott has been picked in seven straight games.
Would also go under in touchdown passes as Tampa Bay held him out of the end zone in Week 1, and Prescott has not thrown multiple touchdown passes in a playoff game since his rookie year.
He has run one in his last three playoff games, though hopefully he’ll avoid the quarterback draw from midfield in the closing seconds this postseason.
If you're located in Dallas and are looking forward to placing your bets on this game, don't forget to go over BMR's guide on the best Texas betting sites.
NFL Pick: Dak Prescott Over 0.5 Passes Intercepted (-170) at Bovada
NFL Pick: Dak Prescott Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-115) at Bovada
Tom Brady (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
- Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Tom Brady is 7-0 against the Cowboys in his career. He is also 5-0 against Dallas defensive coordinator Dan Quinn, including a 2-0 record in the last two seasons against Dallas.
Brady only threw for 212 yards and one touchdown in Week 1, but the offense has struggled for most of this season. But Chris Godwin is healthier than he was at the start of the year, Mike Evans had a monster game in Week 17 against Carolina, and the Bucs should come in fresh and rested after blowing off half the game in Atlanta last week.
Tampa has 26 passing touchdowns and 5 rushing touchdowns this season. That is the fewest number of rushing scores in the league. If the Buccaneers are scoring multiple touchdowns in this game, chances are they are coming from Brady’s throws. He should be a good pick to go over 1.5 touchdown passes for your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: Tom Brady Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-145) at Bovada
Running Back Props
Leonard Fournette (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
- Over 35.5 Rushing Yards
Go figure, Tampa Bay had the No. 32 rushing offense across the board this season. The Buccaneers ranked dead last in rushing attempts, yards, yards per carry, and touchdowns.
But the one defense Leonard Fournette shined against was Dallas in Week 1. Fournette had 21 carries for 127 yards, a full 55 yards above his second-best game all season.
Fournette will unlikely top 100 in this one, but all he has to do is rush for 36 yards to hit his over. With the Buccaneers looking to slow down the pass rush of the Cowboys, Fournette is going to get his touches as this is the “Playoff Lenny” time of year for him to shine. He should be an easy pick to hit his over.
NFL Pick: Leonard Fournette Over 35.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at Bovada
Tony Pollard (Dallas Cowboys)
- Under 21.5 Receiving Yards
The Buccaneers allow the third-fewest receiving yards to running back this season. They did a good job against Tony Pollard in Week 1, holding him to two catches for 14 yards. They also bottled him up on the ground for 6 carries for 8 yards, which is hard to do against Pollard.
But outside of that Minnesota game where Pollard had two huge plays for touchdowns as a receiver, he doesn’t consistently put up receiving numbers like a Christian McCaffrey or Austin Ekeler. Even those two backs were under 20 receiving yards in Saturday’s playoff games.
But in his breakout season, Pollard has gone under 21.5 receiving yards in all but five games. We’ll trust that the same happens here.
NFL Pick: Tony Pollard Under 21.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada
Chris Godwin (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
- Over 67.5 Receiving Yards
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer
When these teams met in Week 1, Chris Godwin did his best to return for that game after tearing his ACL last December. It was a fast recovery, but there was concern he was not 100%. Sure enough, Godwin left that game after 19 snaps and would not return until Week 4. He had three catches for 35 yards in limited work against Dallas. But Godwin spent most of this season looking a step slower as one may expect after a significant knee injury.
But Godwin is still one of Brady’s most trustworthy receivers, and someone he looks for on screens, third downs, and in the red zone. Godwin had 120 yards in Tampa’s division-clinching win over Carolina in Week 17.
He should be a featured receiver in this game, and he could be harder to defend than Mike Evans, who is more for the deep shots that rarely connect in Tampa this season.
Take Godwin to hit his over in yards and he could be a good value pick for a touchdown scorer. He only has one touchdown catch from Brady in the playoffs, but that’s because he missed last year’s games, and Brady had Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown in 2020. The options are more limited now.
Also, the Cowboys allowed 23 touchdown passes this season, and 22 of them went to wide receivers.
NFL Pick: Chris Godwin Over 67.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada
NFL Pick: Chris Godwin Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+200) at Bovada
CeeDee Lamb (Dallas Cowboys)
- Over 73.5 Receiving Yards
- Over 5.5 Receptions
In the 2021 opener, CeeDee Lamb had 104 yards and a touchdown in Tampa Bay. In this year’s opener, he caught 2-of-11 targets for 29 yards. But Lamb has been hot in a career year with 1,359 yards. He had three straight 100-yard games before the Week 18 dud.
We mentioned Godwin having a slow start post-injury for Tampa this year, but Michael Gallup is in the same situation, and he’s been even far less productive than Godwin in his return from injury. The Cowboys even had to call T.Y. Hilton out of semi-retirement to add another quality receiver late in the season.
But if someone can beat tight coverage and make impressive plays, it is Lamb in this offense. Look for him to have a big game and hit his overs.
NFL Pick: CeeDee Lamb Over 73.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada
NFL Pick: CeeDee Lamb Over 5.5 Receptions (-150) at Bovada
Longshot Touchdown Scorer
Tampa Bay Defense/Special Teams
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Finally, for a longshot touchdown scorer with value, we look at Tampa Bay’s defense/special teams. Remember our first pick of a Dak Prescott interception? Not only has he thrown one in seven straight games, but a defense has returned one for a touchdown in three of his last four games.
Tampa Bay’s defense has not scored since a pick-six off Jameis Winston in New Orleans in Week 2, but when you put those opportunities out there so often like Dallas has been doing, then it increases the chances of a return score.
And who is more likely to benefit from a defensive touchdown at home in a big playoff game than Brady? His defense recovered all four of the Rams’ fumbles in his last home playoff game to try to extend his career one more week.
The Cowboys could help him out here as Tampa Bay’s path to victory has often involved the opponent shooting itself in the foot this year.
NFL Pick: Tampa Bay Defense/Special Teams Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+800) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.