Divisional Round Playoff Best Player Props for Sunday: Joe Burrow or Josh Allen’s Moment?

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NFL Prop Pick: Josh Allen Over 275.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review

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The NFL’s divisional round is arguably even more exciting on Sunday with two huge matchups between Bengals-Bills and Cowboys-49ers.

One is the new AFC Game of the Year and the other is a rematch from last postseason.  

We have sorted out our favorite player props that you can find at many of the top-rated sportsbooks.

You can use them in a parlay or play your favorite lines as singles against the current NFL odds

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Buffalo Bills 

Sunday, January 22, 2023 – 03:00 PM EST at Highmark Stadium 

Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills) 

  • Over 275.5 Passing Yards 
  • Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns   

It was not pretty with three turnovers, including a fumble returned for a touchdown, but Josh Allen led his offense to 34 points and passed for 352 yards and three touchdowns in a win over the Dolphins in the AFC Wild Card round.  

Allen is 4-0 at home as a playoff starter, and he has thrown for over 300 yards in three of those games. The Bills tend to let him throw a lot in big games against good offenses, and despite the fact that the Bills can run the ball better than Cincinnati, it still should be a game where Allen hits his over as he looks to put up another 30 points or so to beat the Bengals. 

In six games against playoff teams this year, Allen has five 300-yard passing games. The only time he was under was 213 yards against Baltimore in a rainy game early in the season. 

Allen has also thrown over 1.5 touchdowns in 12-of-17 games this season and in 5-of-6 postseason games since 2020. 

The Bengals have faced very few quality quarterbacks this year, which inflates their pass defense stats. If Tyler Huntley of the Ravens can throw for 226 yards in Cincinnati last week, then Allen can certainly get the job done with his passing overs for your NFL picks in this expected shootout. 

NFL Prop Pick: Josh Allen Over 275.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Bovada 

NFL Prop Pick: Josh Allen Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-160) at Bovada  

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Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals) 

  • Over 278.5 Passing Yards 

We are predicting the role Joe Burrow will be playing this weekend. He is going to have to throw for a lot of yards on the road in a high-scoring game without much help from the run, and he is down three starting offensive linemen. 

The good news is the Bengals are uniquely qualified to deal with the line as Burrow is used to that, he can get the ball out fast, and he has one of the best receiving corps in the NFL. The Bills also do not have an elite rusher like Von Miller to pressure him, so they may be able to survive this matchup. 

The Bills have only allowed four 300-yard passers this year, but Kenny Pickett (rookie in first start) and Jacoby Brissett (Browns) are two of them.  

Burrow may not get that high, but he should be close enough to hit his over in this one.  

NFL Prop Pick: Joe Burrow Over 278.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Bovada

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Tyler Boyd (Cincinnati Bengals) 

  • Anytime Touchdown Scorer 

Here is a novel concept: Tyler Boyd catches a touchdown and it counts this time. Boyd was the player who got the scoring started in Week 17 when these teams first met, but his touchdown catch never officially happened as the game was cancelled following Damar Hamlin’s cardiac arrest. 

But Boyd is a good value pick to score as he can draw the lesser assignments in the Buffalo secondary and take advantage of the coverage drawn towards Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. He is usually good for a big touchdown every few weeks, and here is his chance in the biggest game of the year.  

NFL Prop Pick: Tyler Boyd Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+300) at Bovada

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Samaje Perine (Cincinnati Bengals) 

  • Over 10.5 Receiving Yards 

Sticking with our theme of Burrow throwing often, that means an unimpressive rushing game for Joe Mixon. That could also mean more attempts in the passing game for Samaje Perine, the team’s third down and receiving back. 

Perine played 53% of the snaps against Baltimore last week, but he did not even register a catch on one target in a quiet game for him. However, you can see an interesting home-road split with Perine this year

  • Perine at home: Over 10.5 receiving yards in 2-of-8 games 
  • Perine on road: Over 10.5 receiving yards in 6-of-9 games 

Perine is expected to do more on the road, maybe in an effort to help Burrow more with pass protection and being an outlet receiver. Let’s count on him catching a well-timed screen on a third down or something of that nature to easily hit this over. 

Remember, it was Perine’s 41-yard touchdown catch that got the Bengals going in their 21-3 comeback against the Chiefs in last year’s AFC Championship Game. He usually delivers in their toughest games.  

NFL Prop Pick: Samaje Perine Over 10.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada

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Stefon Diggs (Buffalo Bills) 

  • Over 79.5 Receiving Yards 

While Diggs only has one touchdown in his last five games, he has gone over 100 yards in back-to-back games. Allen has found him with the perfect deep shot against the Patriots and Dolphins to get halfway there each week. 

The Bengals do not have a shutdown corner, and they may even have a major liability in Eli Apple for Diggs to exploit. He is still the most consistent and dependable receiver for this team.  

Diggs has gone over 100 yards in 3-of-4 home playoff games with Buffalo since 2020. Expect him to have a big game again this week.  

Remember, fans from the Buckeye State or the Big Apple who are looking to make a wager on this game should be sure to check out our top-rated Ohio and New York betting sites. 

NFL Prop Pick: Stefon Diggs Over 79.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada

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Dallas Cowboys vs. San Francisco 49ers 

Sunday, January 22, 2023 – 06:30 PM EST at Levi’s Stadium 

Dak Prescott (Dallas Cowboys) 

  • Over 254.5 Passing Yards 

This line is amusing because Prescott passed for 254 yards in the 23-17 wild card loss last season against the 49ers.The 49ers look even better on defense this year, but Prescott has been on a good run, Week 18 aside. He was very accurate and decisive in Tampa Bay last week, throwing for over 300 yards with five total touchdowns. 

Things will be harder this week, and the 49ers have been dominant against the run, so it is likely the Cowboys will throw a ton in this game regardless of the score.  

Prescott getting caught in a one-dimensional offense on the road against a top defense on a short rest week does not sound ideal, but that is one of the most logical game scripts to see him easily hit this over in passing yards. 

But he did just throw for 305 yards in a rout, so maybe this is his year, and a defense that was shredded by Jarrett Stidham (Raiders) in Week 17 may not be as tough as it looks. The 49ers have not played an offense this good since the Chiefs in Week 7, and we know that game ended with 44 points on the board for Kansas City and 423 passing yards for Mahomes. 

Prescott is not Mahomes, but he is one of the best quarterbacks left in the tournament, and he has a great chance to show why here.  

NFL Prop Pick: Dak Prescott Over 254.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Bovada

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Brock Purdy (San Francisco 49ers) 

  • Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns  

On a list of the most consecutive games with multiple touchdown passes from a rookie quarterback, you have Brock Purdy tied at the top with Justin Herbert with seven games each. No one else has more than five such games in a row. 

This would be an eighth in a row. At some point, doesn’t the Mr. Irrelevant part of Purdy’s profile have to shine through this experiment? Did the 49ers really luck into the best obscure draft prospect in decades, or has this been the result of playing with outstanding talent in an amazing system against the weakest part of the NFL’s easiest strength of schedule? 

The Cowboys had a very good defense this year with some incredibly talented players. They have led the NFL in turnovers two years in a row. They have the ability to force Purdy into mistakes and not throw over 1.5 touchdowns here. He still may throw one and watch the running backs (and Deebo Samuel) run in two or more touchdowns, but we’ll take the under on passing touchdowns.  

NFL Prop Pick: Brock Purdy Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-105) at Bovada

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Christian McCaffrey (San Francisco 49ers) 

  • Anytime Touchdown Scorer 
  • Over 65.5 Rushing Yards 

Trading for Christian McCaffrey and watching him put on a dud in this game would not be a good look for the 49ers. With an embarrassment of riches at the skill player positions, McCaffrey is still a valuable asset with his dual-threat abilities as a runner and receiver.  

In fact, McCaffrey has not scored a rushing touchdown in either of the last two games, but he still caught a touchdown in both to keep a scoring streak going of seven straight games with a touchdown. The 49ers are second in the league in scoring, only trailing Dallas, since the McCaffrey trade in Week 7. 

But while the 49ers have owned running backs all year long, the Cowboys have allowed 12 players to rush for at least 70 yards this season. Look for McCaffrey to add his name to that list and hit the over while finding the end zone again in some fashion.  

NFL Prop Pick: Christian McCaffrey Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-162) at Bovada  

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NFL Prop Pick: Christian McCaffrey Over 65.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at Bovada

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T.Y. Hilton (Dallas Cowboys) 

  • Over 25.5 Receiving Yards 

Hilton made his Dallas debut in the best way possible this year. The veteran came down with a 52-yard catch to convert a third-and-30 against the Eagles in the fourth quarter in Week 16. That play had a lot to do with Dallas coming back to win that game. 

Hilton has not done a ton since, but he is a reliable receiver with plenty of experience, and he has received 4-or-5 targets per game since. He had a couple grabs for 23 yards in Tampa Bay last week and has been playing just under 40% of the snaps in the last two games

With our expectations for the Cowboys to sour on the run and throw often, Hilton is still a big-play threat who can hit this over in one grab if the defense is going to pay more attention to CeeDee Lamb and Dalton Schultz.  

NFL Prop Pick: T.Y. Hilton Over 25.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada

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Deebo Samuel (San Francisco 49ers) 

  • Under 54.5 Receiving Yards 

It feels crazy to bet against Deebo Samuel in the playoffs, but his 74-yard touchdown last week, which was mostly YAC, was an outlier for his career. He gained more yards on that play than he did as a receiver in any of his six other playoff games. 

In seven playoff games, Samuel has been under 50 yards all but twice. His lowest playoff game was Dallas last year when he had 38 yards. He did have 72 rushing yards and a touchdown that day, but the 49ers chose to use him more as a runner than a receiver that day. 

This year, Samuel has gone over 54.5 receiving yards in 6-of-14 games, so just over half the time, he does finish under. The Cowboys are one of the better-tackling defenses this year, and they better be on top of things with Samuel, who is so tough to bring down quickly.  

But we are banking on more of a disappointing passing performance from the rookie-led passing attack in San Francisco this week. We’ll see if that pays off. If the Cowboys can make Tom Brady look like he’s 50, maybe they can make Purdy look like he was the last pick in the draft this year. 

Fans from the Big D and the Bay Area who are looking to make a wager on this game should be sure to check out our top-rated Texas and California betting sites. 

NFL Prop Pick: Deebo Samuel Under 54.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.