Warriors vs. Nuggets NBA Odds, Preview and Prediction (Archive)
The nightcap of an NBA on TNT doubleheader on Thursday is a possible Western Conference playoff preview as Golden State visits Denver. Which way to lean at BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks?
Golden State Warriors vs. Denver Nuggets
Thursday, March 10, 2022 – 10:00 PM EST at Ball Arena
There are only two games on Thursday’s NBA schedule with both on TNT, but it’s quite a doubleheader. First is the Nets vs. 76ers, their first matchup since Brooklyn traded James Harden to Philadelphia – although Ben Simmons won’t play. That’s going to do bananas TV ratings and betting action.
Warriors at Nuggets is no slouch, either, as it’s a possible Western Conference playoff preview depending on how the bracket shakes out. Golden State is going to finish either second or third in the West regular-season standings barring something crazy, while Denver should finish anywhere from fourth through sixth.
Thursday wraps up the season series with the Nuggets up 3-0, and it’s oddly Golden State’s second game in Denver this week. That’s because a Dec. 30 game that was postponed by COVID was rescheduled for Monday and the Nuggets won 117-116.
Golden State is 8-3 against the spread on NBA picks in the past 11 meetings.
Warriors to Look Much Different From Monday
Take absolutely nothing from Golden State’s loss on Monday because Steve Kerr was ticked off at the rescheduled date and rested nearly every key player. That the short-handed Dubs in the second of a back-to-back only lost by one is a minor miracle.
The Warriors ended their five-game losing streak Wednesday back at home with a 112-97 rout of the Clippers. Steph Curry was relatively quiet with 15 points, but Golden State had two 20-point scorers off the bench in rookie Jonathan Kuminga (21 points) and Jordan Poole (20) – we won an over/under points prop here at Bookmakers Review on Poole Monday in Denver when he had 32. That’s four straight games with at least 20 points for the former Michigan star, a career-high in the NBA.
At least rest-wise, Kerr shouldn’t sit anyone here because it’s not part of a back-to-back, although Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala remain out injured (Green could be back Monday), and Otto Porter Jr. and Gary Payton II have each missed the past few games. None of them will play tonight. Golden State is just 15-14 in the 29 games Green has missed. He’s such a big part of their defense.
There’s a good chance that Curry becomes the 49th player to reach 20,000 career points Thursday as he’s 28 shy of that mark. He would be the 23rd to reach it playing with one team.
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In Tuesday’s win over L.A., Curry became the Warriors’ franchise all-time leader in steals, passing Chris Mullin (1,360). Curry has joined Mike Conley Jr. (Memphis), LeBron James (Cleveland), and Reggie Miller (Indiana) as the only players to be the all-time career leader in points, assists, three-pointers, steals and games played for a franchise.
Perhaps consider a second-half spread bet on Golden State. It has the highest plus-minus for the second half at +4.4 and the highest plus-minus for the third quarter at +3.1. That’s a product of good coaching.
The Dubs are 3-10-1 ATS in their past 14 overall.
Nuggets in 2nd of B2B
Denver is at a disadvantage playing the second of a back-to-back after a 106-100 win in Sacramento on Wednesday. The Nuggets are 5-7 overall in the second of a B2B this season and 1-3 at home.
Wednesday’s game should have been easier as Denver was up as much as 18 but then had to rally for the six-point victory. Nikola Jokic has been playing out of his mind lately and had 38 points, 18 rebounds, and 7 assists – he’s a +170 second-favorite at BMR’s top-rated books to repeat as MVP behind Philly’s Joel Embiid (-130). Monte Morris had maybe his game of the season in hitting 8-for-11 from the field for 20 points.
The Nuggets played without starters Will Barton (ankle) and Jeff Green (personal) and reserve Nah'Shon Hyland (knee). No idea if they will play here, and frankly that’s going to make it tough to make a pick as Barton is second on the team in scoring at 14.8 ppg, Green is fifth at 10.4 ppg and the rookie Hyland (8.8 ppg) is the primary backup to Morris.
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Would coach Michael Malone actually rest Jokic in the second of a back-to-back? He generally doesn’t, but his star played 35 minutes Wednesday.
When did backup center DeMarcus Cousins become so important/relevant? The team is 12-1 in games he has played since being signed off the scrap heap even though Cousins averages only about 14 minutes per game. He is averaging 9.5 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 2 assists in that limited time.
Since Jan. 23, Denver’s 17-5 record is third-best in the NBA. If Barton, Green, and Hyland play, I’ll take the points. If not, give them. I’m going to guess they play – if Jokic somehow sits, obviously take Golden State.
NBA Pick: Nuggets +2 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.