NBA Underdog of the Day (May 2): Which Team is on Upset Alert? (Archive)
The Phoenix Suns are on a mission to return to the NBA Finals and take the West for the second straight season. As round 2 starts up, they have a tough test against the Dallas Mavericks in Game 1.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns
Monday, May 02, 2022 – 10:00 PM EDT at Footprint Center
How Evenly Matched Are These Two Teams?
When you look at the three matchups between these two teams from the regular season, you can probably gather why the Suns are two possession favorites at home. Not only do the Suns have a nice homecourt advantage, but they won all three games during the regular season.
That being said, most of those games came a long time ago. The first two were a home-and-home series back in November and the other came in late January. Deandre Ayton missed the most recent meeting back in the winter, but we almost can’t take either of the first two games into account.
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Luka Doncic missed both November games for the Mavs, Tim Hardaway Jr. played and Dallas still had Kristaps Porzingis.
Over those three games during the regular season, Dallas held the Suns to less than 110 points per 100 possessions and considering the Suns’ offensive prowess this season, that’s pretty impressive.
The Suns were also going through some Finals hangover earlier in the season though, so beyond pace and a few other factors, we have to consider what will happen in this game and series and not what has happened.
That being said, the Mavs played the Suns tough three times and didn’t have their best player in two of those games.
The Sharp Underdog
As of now, Dallas matches up really well with the Suns. They have equal amounts of really good guard depth and defensively they weigh in extremely well too. The matchups between Jalen Brunson and Dorian Finney-Smith guarding smaller guards in Chris Paul and Devin Booker will be key to this series.
If the length and strength of those two Mavs guards is too much for the Suns, it could have ripple effects into this series.
I think Phoenix is good enough to counter those matchups to win the series, but it’s going to give them trouble here in Game 1 since these teams haven’t met in a long time. Booker may not be 100 percent yet and that will only help the Dallas defense clamp down in Game 1.
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Dallas ranked in the top half of the league in road defense this season and add that they have the best player in this series and I think we could see an upset in Game 1.
The Sharp Pick
While I’m tempted to bet the Mavs’ moneyline as well, I think I’m going to keep it to just taking the points. This spread should be more like +4 or even +3 ½ so I’ll gladly take the extra point or two the top-rated sportsbooks are spotting me.
I think Phoenix wins this series and I think they could even take Game 1, but with Booker not completely healthy and a bad matchup coming to town for Game 1, I like the Mavs taking points. I see a one possession game either way here.
NBA Pick: Mavericks +5 ½ (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
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