NBA Player Props Best Bets: Giannis’ Point Prop Total is Set Too High! (Archive)
NBA Pick: Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 35.5 Points (-117) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The NBA odds board has a nine-game slate for us tonight to find winning NBA picks. We have been doing great identifying the proper player props to play, so let’s dive in for more winners.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Friday, December 30, 2022 – 08:00 PM EST at Fiserv Forum
Giannis Antetokounmpo (Milwaukee Bucks)
- Over/Under 35.5 Points
Yes, I understand that Giannis Antetokounmpo is a monster, and I would not argue with you if you told me he's the best player in the NBA. Yes, I understand he is missing his supporting cast tonight and more of the onus will be put on him for scoring and rebounding. However, this point prop total is simply set too high.
Giannis Antetokounmpo averages 31.7 points per game. And yes he has had 3 40-point performances in his last five outings. However, if you go by his last 11 outings he still only had three performances where he would have gone over this point total. Giannis will attack the middle against the Minnesota Timberwolves. Center Rudy Gobert has not had the best year but he is still enough to deter Giannis from going completely unchecked to the rim.
This will be Milwaukee's first game home after a road trip that was unsuccessful. Milwaukee went 1-4 on that road trip. However, as seasoned NBA observers know, the first game home after a significant road trip is often played with the same amount of fatigue as a road game. It usually takes until the second game at home before the home-court advantage really kicks in.
A Repeat of The Previous Meeting?
Minnesota and Milwaukee played once this season, on November 4th. Milwaukee won the game 115-102. Jrue Holiday was the leader score against the Wolves that day with 29 points. Giannis Antetokounmpo did not come anywhere near this point total in that game.
This should be a fun game between 2 teams who are struggling right now. Giannis is an unquestioned top 5 player in the league. Anthony Edwards is trying to elevate himself to that status. With Karl Anthony Towns out of the lineup, Edwards is averaging over 28 points per game. Edwards will want to try and keep pace with Giannis tonight.
Giannis has been fantastic and I know the sportsbooks need to shield themselves from exposure to the over here, but this under is too good to pass up. Our first betting pick for player props is Giannis Antetokounmpo under 35.5 points.
Don't forget to check out our guide on the top Wisconsin betting sites if you're a Milwaukee resident and are planning on betting on this game!
NBA Pick: Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 35.5 Points (-117) at BetOnline
Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets
Friday, December 30, 2022 - 09:00 PM EST at Ball Arena
Tyler Herro (Miami Heat)
- Over/Under 20.5 Points
Tyler Herro is averaging 21 points per game this season. Yet his point prop total is set at 20.5 points. That is because he has failed to go over his season average in three of his last four games. That is also despite playing at least 34 minutes in all four games, which might suggest to you that Herro is starting to decrease his output. I will counter that a lot of these off nights were matchup based.
A Good Night for Herro
Tonight, Tyler Herro has a great matchup against the Denver Nuggets. Herro will be able to hunt players such as Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. in the pick-and-roll to allow him to find easy shots. And with the Heat injury report being littered with players including star Jimmy Butler, it is easy to assume that Herro will receive a boost in production tonight.
Tyler Herro uses his quickness in the half-court setting to create space for his lethal jump shot and he is a master of using the threat of the drive to open up space for his jumper. If you play too far off Herro, he can get to the rim and finishes at the rim at an exceptionally high rate. Herro will need to display these skills tonight, as he will become the primary option if Jimmy Butler sits.
The Heat have been successful with Herro as their primary creator, which is fortunate because Butler’s grinding style causes him to miss over 20 games per season on average.
Tyler Herro is an excellent sharpshooter who finds himself in a nice matchup tonight against Denver. He's not matching his scoring average over the last five games, but that will change tonight when he takes advantage of Denver's weak perimeter defense. Our second player proper today is Tyler Herro over 20.5 points
NBA Pick: Tyler Herro Over 20.5 Points (-114) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.