Best NBA Player Prop Bets Today (March 1) (Archive)
The NBA kicks off March with six games this Tuesday evening. Here are a few NBA prop picks from Bovada (visit our Bovada Review), a top-rated sportsbook, that should bring you the best value for your buck.
Atlanta Hawks vs. Boston Celtics
Tuesday, March 01, 2022 – 07:30 PM EST at TD Garden
Trae Young
In the early tip on TNT, the Atlanta Hawks look to win the season series 3-1 over the Boston Celtics. But the Celtics are a 6.5-point favorite at the NBA odds and are making their playoff push with 11 wins in their last 13 games, including a win over the Hawks on Super Bowl Sunday. Trae Young had 30 points and 10 assists in that loss, but should you bet on big numbers from him again?
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Prop Analysis
In his fourth year, Young is having arguably his best season yet as he is on pace for career highs in PER (25.0), FG% (.457), and 3P% (.378). But his big scoring nights usually are met with an instant regression to the mean the next game. Young scored 41 points against Toronto after only putting in 14 against Chicago.
It is Young’s sixth 40-point game this season, but if you look at what he did in the next game the last five times, he scored 23, 28, 25, 22, and 22 points. The last two times he had 40 points a season ago, he scored 15 points the next game, making it seven times in a row he’s failed to follow a 40-point game with at least 30.
Young also got to 41 points against Toronto with only making one three and six free throws, making it very different from his other 40-point games this season. I like Boston’s No. 2 defense to make life harder on Young and not allow him to get to the basket with as much ease. The Celtics held Young to 18 and 21 points before last meeting’s 30-point effort. In three games against Boston this year, Young averages 23.0 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 8.7 assists per game.
Young is always a threat to put up double-digit assists, but he is more inconsistent with rebounds. The other factor is home court. Of Young’s 14 games with at least 32 points this season, 11 have come in front of the home crowd. I trust Boston to not allow Young to have another huge game.
NBA Prop Pick: Trae Young Under 40.5 Points/Rebounds/Assists (-110) at Bovada
Golden State Warriors vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Tuesday, March 01, 2022 - 08:00 PM EST at Target Center
Andrew Wiggins
The Golden State Warriors are a 1-point road underdog in Minnesota. Each game between these teams has been decided by 9 or more points this season, but the Warriors come into this one shorthanded, which should provide more opportunities for the starters around Steph Curry.
Prop Analysis
A “general illness” is what kept Klay Thompson out of Golden State’s loss on Sunday against Dallas, and he reportedly will be out again for this game in Minnesota. That means more scoring responsibility on Andrew Wiggins, who had 18 points in Sunday’s loss. The Warriors stunk up the joint in the fourth quarter, only scoring 13 points and blowing the lead.
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Wiggins has made multiple threes in 11 of his last 12 games, and he has games with five and three made threes against Minnesota this season. In the month of February, the Timberwolves ranked 25th in defensive rating. Minnesota also played last night and could be a little fatigued in this matchup.
Steph Curry has 24 assists in the last two games, and without Thompson or Draymond Green, Wiggins is just about his best NBA pick to give the ball to right now. I like Wiggins to hit at least three from downtown in this one.
NBA Prop Pick: Andrew Wiggins Over 2.5 Made Threes (+112) at Bovada
Dallas Mavericks vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Tuesday, March 01, 2022 - 10:00 PM EST at Crypto.com Arena
Dorian Finney-Smith
In the late tip on TNT, the Dallas Mavericks are a 5.5-point favorite against the struggling Lakers. Dallas is coming off an impressive comeback win in Golden State, but there are more players to bet on besides the stars in Luka Doncic and LeBron James.
Prop Analysis
After the Mavericks traded Kristaps Porzingis, Dorian Finney-Smith has had an effective run as of late. Over the last seven games, he is shooting 57.1% from the field and 50% from three. He has scored 14 points in three of the last four games. He had 9 rebounds against Golden State and had 9 rebounds earlier this season against the Lakers.
He is rarely good for more than a couple assists, but with the way the Lakers are struggling, this looks like a good game for Finney-Smith to nail some threes, help in the rebound battle, and dish out a few assists. A stat line of 12-6-2 should be in his wheelhouse, which would give him 20 total points, rebounds, and assists.
NBA Prop Pick: Dorian Finney-Smith Over 17.5 Points/Rebounds/Assists (-114) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.