The UFC returns to our screens for another talent-stacked fight card from the Apex Center in Las Vegas. Top-ranked light heavyweight contenders Thiago Santos and Magomed Ankalaev will meet in the center of the octagon for next weekend’s main event.
Read on for our complete betting guide taking a first look at Santos and Ankalaev, including updated UFC odds and our free expert UFC betting picks, predictions, and analysis.
UFC Light Heavyweight Main Event Bout
Saturday, March 12, 2022 – 10:05 PM EST at UFC Apex Center
Following a stint on The Ultimate Fighter Brazil in 2013, and although he didn’t win the tournament, Thiago Santos has flourished amongst the UFC elite, having earned a contract for the unique skill set he possessed.
The Brazilian native has transitioned into a household amongst UFC fans. Despite fighting as a middleweight and light heavyweight, Santos’ background in capoeira has allowed him to deliver an agile offense compared to most heavier weight class competitors.
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A five-year stay in the UFC's 185lb division positioned Santos as one of the most exciting prospects, with a plethora of highlight-reel moments to match. However, his championship opportunity arrived when “Marreta” decided to move up to the light heavyweight division.
Although Santos lost to the legendary Jonny “Bones” Jones on the judge’s scorecards, many fans argue to this day that Santos was the rightful winner – therefore earning respect and ultimate credibility of the MMA community.
Santos Best Available Odds: To Win ML (+360) at BetOnline
Suppose you haven’t already been acquainted with Russia’s Magomed Ankalaev. In that case, I suggest you rush to YouTube or UFC Fight Pass and keep yourself entertained with elite-level performances he’s provided for the sport thus far.
After training as a student in Greco-Roman wrestling, Ankalaev was later gifted the honor of becoming an International Master of Sport in Combat Sambo and amateur MMA. Because of the similarities between combat sambo and mixed martial arts, Ankalaev turned his interest into professional MMA at the tender age of 21.
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The Russian standout has kept a near-unblemished record, outside of a triangle choke loss to Paul Craig in 2018, a fight where he was notably winning all three rounds until losing with 1 second remaining.
There’s no denying that Ankalaev has an elitist skill set that will undoubtedly position him as a UFC champion, or at least, a championship contender before his career has concluded.
Magomed Ankalaev Available Odds: To Win ML (-460) at BetOnline
Santos Style and How Can Santos Defeat Ankalaev?
Having lost 3 of his previous 5 fights, many will be quick to doubt Thiago Santos. However, you can’t neglect the well-rounded skillset of the Brazilian.
Santos’ left hooks are no joke; as an offensively minded fighter, he’ll regularly be hunting for a finish with an excellent level of power in his counter strikes to match. He will switch stances to confuse the opposition, and with the fight-ending power always present; fighters can’t take let their focus slip for one moment.
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When switching stances, Santos does offer some heavy leg kicks from either side, which is a significant path to victory versus an opponent like Ankalaev, who relies on his movement.
Ankalaev Fight Style and How Can Ankalaev Defeat Santos?
Ankalaev is the complete package, and I can envision him winning this bout striking or using his takedown offense.
Santos has proved to have poor takedown defense on countless occasions, and while the Brazilian’s grappling offense isn’t too bad, he isn’t the greatest defensive operator in these positions.
The technical approach in Ankalaev’s game is impeccable - from his footwork, head movement, comfortability in both stances, and awareness of when the takedowns are available. It’s difficult to discredit him, outside of a few defensive tendencies like leaving his hands low on occasions.
The available UFC odds at Bookmakers Review favor Ankalaev with a -460 price tag.
I understand that the top sportsbooks want to be cautious - but they’re giving the impression that Santos is an amateur.
While I agree that Ankalaev wins the contest impressively, there is no value on the moneyline. With a 25-minute time limit to his advantage, I have a funny feeling the Russian will find a fight-ending blow before the 5th round.
UFC Vegas 50: Ankalaev to Win Inside the Distance (-110) [1.1u returns 1u profit] at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.