Trail Blazers vs. Suns Expert NBA Betting Analysis and Free Pick (Archive)
The Portland Trail Blazers (25-36) visit the Phoenix Suns (49-12) in the late tip for ESPN this Wednesday evening. Phoenix is on its first losing streak since Christmas while Portland has been blown out twice since the All-Star break. Read on to take a look at the NBA odds.
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Phoenix Suns
Wednesday, March 2, 2022 – 10:00 PM EST at Footprint Center
The Suns (33-28 ATS) are a 13-point favorite over the Trail Blazers (25-36 ATS) at BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks. The Suns are a perfect 16-0 SU as a double-digit favorite this season, but they are 8-8 ATS in those games, including a 2-6 ATS record as a favorite of more than 12 points. Without Chris Paul, can they cover this big of a spread?
Season Recap: Phoenix Leads 2-1
These teams met three times early in the season, but compared to most teams, Portland has done an admiral job in a down year against the team with the best record in the NBA. Portland shot lights out in its first win of the season against Phoenix way back in October.
That was when Damian Lillard was healthy but struggling, and CJ McCollum was still part of the team with a game-high 28 points in the 134-105 win. Chris Paul was held to a season-low four points.
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The November rematch turned out to be the Frank Kaminsky game. Kaminsky came off the bench and scored 31 points in a very surprising performance that helped the Suns to a 10-point win. Kaminsky then played four more games before being injured and has not played since.
In December, the Suns were without Devin Booker but still took care of the Trail Blazers in Portland for a 111-107 overtime win. Paul’s late shot forced overtime. Remove Paul, Lillard, and the traded McCollum from the matchup and you have a different looking game now, but it’s still one that very much favors the Suns.
Recent Play: Suns Adjusting, Trail Blazers Imploding
With Paul (thumb fracture) out, the Suns will have to adjust to losing their main facilitator and closer. Paul is leading the NBA with 10.7 assists per game. Devin Booker was going to have to pick up the slack in that department, and in the first game after the All-Star break without Paul, he had a season-high 12 assists in an easy 20-point win.
But that was Oklahoma City, one of the worst teams in the league. The Suns got a much better test from New Orleans, who held Booker to a more normal five assists while he reverted to being more of the shooting guard in this offense. Booker has scored 30 in back-to-back games, but the Suns are a minus-27 with him on the court.
The Suns did not shoot well (43.9%) against New Orleans and the bench provided just 17 points in a surprising 117-102 loss at home. It is only the second time this season the Suns lost at home by more than a dozen points. CJ McCollum (32 points) and Brandon Ingram (28) had their way with Phoenix’s defense.
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For the first time all season, the Suns have allowed over 115 points in consecutive games after losing 118-114 to Utah on Sunday. The Jazz hit 17 threes as they are capable of doing. Portland takes a lot of threes but only ranks 16th in 3P% (35.1%) this season and has shot 21.1% in the last two games.
The Suns had a chance to tie Utah at the end of regulation, but Jae Crowder threw a pass out of bounds with seconds to play. It was only the ninth turnover of the game for Phoenix, which shot over 50% from the field, but that’s how a team can come up short against a good opponent. That poise down the stretch where the Suns are really missing Paul, but playing a bad Portland team should not require many heroics late in the game.
Portland has come out of the break and lost at home 132-95 to Golden State and 124-92 to Denver, making this the lowest point of the team’s season. In fact, Portland is only the second team in the last five seasons to lose consecutive home games by 30-plus points.
Prediction
The Suns have not lost three games in a row all season and this does not look like the matchup to make that happen. Phoenix is 17-7 ATS against teams ranked 20th or worse in Net Rating, which would include these Trail Blazers. Portland should keep it closer than 30 points this time, but I am going to trust the Suns to correct some of Sunday’s miscues and get a big win for your NBA picks this Wednesday.
NBA Pick: Suns -13 (-110) with Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.