The weather gods might help the under beat the NCAAF odds this Saturday when the Ole Miss Rebels host the Texas A&M Aggies.
Saturday, November 13, 2021 – 07:00 PM EST at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Do a little dance, make a little rain, get down tonight. We’re recommending the under your college football picks this Saturday when the No. 16 Ole Miss Rebels (7-2 SU, 5-3-1 ATS) host the No. 14 Texas A&M Aggies (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS). As you can see by those rankings and those records, there isn’t a lot to choose from between these two SEC clubs, but each side has the under at 6-3 thus far, so maybe they can form Voltron and carry us to the pay window at GTbets (visit our GTbets Review), where they’ve got the total pegged at 55.5 points.
Every hypothesis needs some data, so let’s hit up our usual suspects before we go any further:
Jeff Sagarin: Texas A&M –0.37
FiveThirtyEight: TAMU 47 percent
ESPN Football Power Index: TAMU 44.7 percent
Now, wait just a par-boiled minute... All three projections are screaming at us in harmony to take Ole Miss as 2.5-point home dogs (with –103 juice) on the NCAAF odds board at Heritage Sports or, for that matter, +120 on the moneyline at YouWager (visit our YouWager Review). I was not expecting that chorus.
The SP+ rankings at ESPN have the Aggies up in sixth place (No. 26 offense, No. 5 defense), 11 spots, and 6.1 points higher than the Rebs (No. 5 offense, No. 57 defense). That suggests we’re looking at a much tighter line than these projections would have us believe. Curious.
Let’s put a pin in that point spread for now and get back to our total. Sagarin projects these two teams to combine for 49.17 points, which leaves ample room between that number and the college football odds for a chunky bet. What we need now is some liquid sunshine, which is where that dance comes in; Saturday’s long-range forecast calls for rain to start hitting Oxford sometime around midnight and to come and go the next couple of days. Maybe we’ll get that precipitation a little earlier than expected.
Here’s another reason to bet either the under or the underdogs in this one: Aggies QB Zach Calzada might be less than 100 percent after dislodging his right shoulder during their 20-3 win over the Auburn Tigers (+4.5 away, Under 49.5).
Calzada did return to finish the game after they popped his shoulder back in, but I suspect that’s going to hurt a lot more now than it did during the heat of battle. He’s already their second-stringer, too, after Haynes King (foot) was lost for the season. Let’s see if we can take advantage of the classic underdog-Under parlay. It’s just the right thing to do.
NCAAF Picks:
Ole Miss +2.5 (–103) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.