Sunday, February 13, 2022 at SoFi Stadium
Best Price Update
To Respect the New England Patriots, Maybe?
The New England Patriots bandwagon gathered pace on TNF with an impressive shutout of the Atlanta Falcons. The AFC Conference appears all over the place this season so perhaps it’s time to start respecting their chances under the sports’ greatest coach ever, Bill Belichick who is shrewd enough to feast on the famine of quality contenders. Their promising quarterback Mac Jones seems to fit the ‘Tom Brady bill’ of being able to produce under pressure illustrated by an outstanding third-down conversion rate but at +1200 it’s too late or too short in price to add them.
Titans Finally Find a Letdown Spot on Sunday’s Early NFL Week 11 Slate
Finally, the Gangster Squad found a letdown spot against the Houston Texans after a six-match winning run that included wins against the Bills, Chiefs and Rams. There seemed to be plenty of faces liking the Texans at +10 but not sure anyone tipped the moneyline.
After so much regression in Tennessee Titans’ price during the recent weeks, it’s refreshing to see a big price push out to +2000 with Intertops from +1100 last week, now that’s a huge over-reaction!
Readers and followers will know my bugbear that the Buffalo Bills have been underpriced and overhyped and the loss to the Indianapolis Colts was no surprise to me pushing their price out to a more realistic +850 from +700 but still way too short for my liking.
Kansas City Chiefs Put the Pieces Together as I’d Hoped They Would in the Late Sunday Slate
Readers and followers of my column for BMR will know how keen I’ve been to get the Kansas City Chiefs onside in recent weeks and after four wins in succession with only 47 points conceded we can rest assured the defense is doing a better job.
That’s not to say they are looking back to their brilliant best, with Patrick Mahomes not throwing a touchdown against the Cowboys but we have great value at over double the prices currently available for the Arrowhead men in the Division, Conference, and Super Bowl LVI.
We also backed them on the money line last week at home to the Dallas Cowboys and they didn’t disappoint at -125, so we have exciting weeks ahead cheering them on now with their 7-4 record looking a whole lot better than a month ago. I did state, last week, that the match seemed more important to the Chiefs than the Cowboys so to see the Dallas price stable at +1100 for Super Bowl LVI is to be expected.
Monday Night Football saw a wrap for NFL week 11 with Tampa Bay Buccaneers back to winning ways and hardening up their position at the top of the market as favorites at +550 for Super Bowl LVI.
The Detroit Lions are a traditional NFL recipe for Thanksgiving and the match-up with the Chicago Bears is not the most appetizing on Thursday, meaning a bet on the under could stop you choking on your turkey. Dallas Cowboys vs. L A Raiders and Buffalo Bills vs. New Orleans Saints don’t wet the betting whistle either so let’s look to the weekend for our best NFL bets.
Maybe a let-down spot for the Pats against the Titans coming in NFL week 12
Plenty of shrewd punters out there will be patting themselves on the back if they managed to get the look-ahead line of -3 on the New England Patriots now the line has risen another field goal to 6. I can’t help but think the Houston Texans were flattered by the result when you consider that Titans turned the ball over on five occasions and destroyed the Texans on all other metrics. Let’s also consider the Patriots had a facile win over Atlanta Falcons skewing the market as discussed above, and I cannot help but believe that 3 points are an over-reaction.
NFL Week 12 Pick: Tennessee Titans +6 at -115 Bovada
The Tennessee Titans Price Drift Is Too Much to Refuse in the Super Bowl LVI
As readers will know I’ve had the Arizona Cardinals and Tennessee Titans earmarked during recent weeks for our Super Bowl LVI market bets. I must admit the New England Patriots are now in my rear-view mirror, but I think this week is the right time to add the Tennessee Titans to our Super Bowl LVI perm given their price has doubled with some books after Sunday’s letdown versus the Houston Texans. I discussed the reason why the result flattered the Texans and therefore I am happy to be tempted in by the Tennessee Titans price at +2000 with Intertops for the Super Bowl LVI.
Super Bowl LVI Pick: Tennessee Titans at +2000 Intertops
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.