NFL Pick: 2023 Seattle Seahawks Under 8½ Wins (+130) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The Seattle Seahawks were a surprise playoff team in 2022, and nothing was more surprising than Geno Smith having a breakout year in replacing Russell Wilson. Smith threw 30 touchdown passes, led the NFL in completion percentage (69.8%), and deservingly made the Pro Bowl.
With the Seahawks ranking 25th in points allowed and 30th in rushing, it was really one of the better jobs in NFL history at a quarterback carrying a below-average team to the postseason.
Would it have happened in a 16-game season with only 6 playoff teams per conference? Maybe not, but the Seahawks were good enough for 9-8 last year, and they should be in the mix again this year in a flawed NFC.
The Seahawks have an over/under of 8.5 wins at many of the top-rated offshore sportsbooks. Does Geno build on his 2022 success, or will that go down as a 1-year wonder type of moment?
Let’s break down the 2023 season for the Seattle Seahawks.
The Changes That Matter
The Seahawks are one of 7 teams to keep the same quarterback, head coach, and both coordinators from last year. They doubled up in the 1st round of the draft and they have brought back some familiar names to the defense.
Seahawks Add Another Weapon
There was no denying Geno Smith had the best season of his career last year. But there was also a steep decline in his numbers in the last 5 games of the regular season.
- His completion percentage dropped from 72.7% to 63.3%.
- His yards per attempt dropped from 8.1 to 6.2.
- His passer rating dropped from 108.7 to 83.9.
- Including the playoffs, Smith threw as many interceptions (6) in the final 6 games of the season as he did in the first 12 games.
- The Seahawks never scored more than 24 points in any game after Week 13.
More Consistency?
Seattle is hoping that by adding another weapon, Smith will have a better, more consistent season as this does have the potential to be an elite wide receiver trio. The Seahawks used their other 1st-round pick on Ohio State’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba, considered by many to be the top wide receiver prospect in this draft class.
Rookie wide receivers rarely have huge seasons or impact, but this is a rare case where the one thought to be the best in his class can go to a team where he only has to be the 3rd-best wide receiver. The Seahawks still have a very good duo in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, who both went over 1,000 yards last year with at least 6 touchdown catches each.
The role for a No. 3 wideout is open and Smith-Njigba could be a great player to fill that role. This offense was using Marquise Goodwin that way last year, and he averaged a solid 9.2 yards per target on 42 targets and 27 catches. Smith-Njigba should demand more volume than that.
Throw in a healthy Walker at running back, and the offense has the potential to be better than it was last year.
Defense: New and Old Faces
The Seahawks have not ranked in the top 10 in yards or points allowed since 2016, but last year was among Pete Carroll’s lowest-ranked units yet. Needing help, the team used the No. 5 pick on Devon Witherspoon, a corner from Illinois.
You can never have enough good corners, and the Seahawks are very low on reliable corners right now. Riq Woolen had a surprisingly solid rookie season for a 5th-round pick, and Michael Jackson allowed 55.8% completions with just 5.7 yards per target.
Filling Holes
Witherspoon fills a need and should be the aggressive, grabby type of corner who can make plays that Carroll likes to have. But there will be a debate if the team should have gone with Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter, considered by many to be the best defender in the draft.
He slipped to No. 9 for off-field concerns, and the Seahawks did not view it as the best fit. But that is the player that will likely be debated with Witherspoon at No. 5 in this draft.
Bobby Is Back
Elsewhere, the Seahawks are welcoming back two former draft picks in linebacker Bobby Wagner and defensive tackle Jarran Reed. Wagner was only gone for a year with the Rams, but he is back and can still play. Reed hasn’t been with Seattle since 2020, and he had minimal impact with the Chiefs (2021) and Packers (2022) in the last 2 seasons.
According to Pro Football Reference, the Seahawks were 19th in pressure rate (20.8%) but 8th in sack rate (7.6%). You could say they overachieved a bit in the sack department. The Seahawks did not add any big pass-rushing talent either. Dre’Mont Jones comes over from Denver where he had 6.5 sacks and 16 pressures last year, which should replace the production lost from the departed Quinton Jefferson (5.5 sacks and 18 pressures).
It may be another season without a top-10 defense, but hopefully, the Seahawks can move into the top 20 or better this year.
2023 Schedule Analysis and Pick
The Seahawks are a tricky one in 2023 because it is hard to put them on a pedestal above other NFC contenders like the Saints, Falcons, Packers, Lions, Vikings, and Giants. That is not to mention the elite teams in the Eagles, Cowboys, and 49ers.
You basically are betting on how much you trust Geno Smith to not be a fluke, and if he can improve with a rookie wideout, or how much stock to put in the late-season slide. Was that him already regressing, or was that the case of playing the 49ers a couple of times and some games in worse weather?
Devil’s Advocate
In Smith’s defense, 2022 was basically his 3rd season as a starter following his first seasons with the Jets in 2013 and 2014. A 3rd-year breakout sounds a lot more realistic and normal than a 10th-year breakout because it is not like teams were lining up to start Geno in 2015-21.
The other worry is the schedule. Sweeping the Cardinals should be fine, but you cannot expect Smith to lead another pair of comeback wins against the Rams, especially if they have Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Aaron Donald on the field. None of them were in Week 18 when the Seahawks needed an overtime win over the 5-win Rams just to get to 9-8.
Splitting the Division
The best you can really do in NFC West division games is probably 3-3. There are very winnable games with the Panthers (Week 3), the Browns (Week 8), and the Commanders (Week 10) coming to Seattle. But this team also has to play the Cowboys (Week 13), the Eagles (Week 15) and what should be a strong AFC North slate.
They also go back to Detroit in Week 2 where they won 48-45 last year, but the Lions are favorites in the NFC North this season. It seems unlikely they will drop that game again to Seattle.
Over or Under?
The Seahawks ended last year on a 3-6 skid. With the quarterback’s lack of a track record, and spending 1st-round picks on positions that are hard to excel at right away (wideout and corner), your best bet is to take the under here.
Maybe the Seahawks top out at 8-9 and make this close, but there are better-built teams in the NFC that have their own question mark at quarterback that could be solved with a surprisingly good season. Think Jordan Love in Green Bay or Desmond Ridder in Atlanta.
Geno is still not a sure thing despite what he did last year. With a clearly better team in the division (49ers), I like the move to predict the fringe playoff team with a shaky defense to take a minor step back the next season. Consider the under for your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: 2023 Seattle Seahawks Under 8½ Wins (+130) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
On the Last Season of “The Seahawks”: Geno’s Wild Ride
Going into last season, the 2022 Seattle Seahawks’ over/under 5.5 wins was tied for the 2nd-lowest total in the league. This team was thought to be on the decline with Geno Smith replacing Russell Wilson, who was traded to Denver. Naturally, the NFL made Denver at Seattle the Monday night game in Week 1, and the Seahawks played well for an upset win.
Of course, little did we know the Broncos would be an embarrassing offense that finished 32nd in scoring and fired coach Nathaniel Hackett before his rookie season ended. He almost did enough to get fired in Week 1 after setting up a 64-yard field goal attempt to try to beat Seattle.
Sneaky Pete
You kind of knew Pete Carroll would have something in store for that game to welcome Wilson back to Seattle. But after a 2-3 start, the only interesting thing happening in Seattle was Smith’s consistent play at quarterback. He completed over 75% of his passes with 9 touchdowns and 2 interceptions during the 2-3 start, and he was vastly outperforming Wilson in Denver, which was something that Seattle fans were definitely paying attention to.
But in Week 6, the offense started rookie running back Kenneth Walker for the first time, and he rushed for 97 yards and a touchdown. Suddenly, the running game was taking off and the Seahawks went on a 4-game winning streak to get to 6-3, including a sweep of the Cardinals.
But that proved to be the high point of the season. Smith’s numbers started declining in the second half, the defense was still abysmal against the run, and Walker was injured or else he had a shot at Offensive Rookie of the Year.
The 12th Man
Seattle is usually a good home team, but there were some bad home losses last year, including games against the Falcons, Raiders, and Panthers – all opponents who lost 10-plus games.
Even when the defense did reasonably well in holding the Chiefs (24) and 49ers (21) well under their scoring averages, the offense struggled in imperfect weather conditions. At 7-8, the playoffs were looking to slip away.
But the Seahawks got to beat the Jets in Week 17, then had a shot at the playoffs in Week 18. They were down late to the Rams again, but for the 2nd time last season, Smith led a 4th-quarter comeback to complete a sweep of the Rams with an overtime win.
The Seahawks were 9-8 and their playoff fate depended on what the Packers would do against Detroit that night. The Packers just had to win to get the final playoff spot, but they lost to the Lions, putting Seattle in as the No. 7 seed thanks to a 48-45 win in Detroit back in Week 4.
Unexpected Playoff Appearance
But the playoffs were short-lived as the Seahawks had to take on that tough San Francisco defense again. Smith was not terrible in the games against the No. 1 defense, but Seattle’s offense scored a whopping 13 points combined in the first 2 matchups.
The Seahawks outdid that in one quarter in the playoffs and took a 17-16 lead into the locker room at halftime. But everything turned in the 3rd quarter when Smith was strip-sacked in the red zone. The 49ers quickly built up to a 41-17 lead before winning 41-23.
The Seattle defense allowed Brock Purdy to pass for 332 yards and 3 touchdowns, numbers not seen by a rookie quarterback in an NFL playoff game since Sammy Baugh in 1937.
But it was an unexpected playoff season for Seattle. Now the expectations are a little higher even if San Francisco is still a heavy favorite to repeat as division champions.
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