MLB Pick: Under 9 (-123) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
We have three plays with current MLB odds that offer great betting value for Friday’s full 15-game Major League Baseball slate at top sportsbooks.
These plays are based mostly on our proprietary model. One of the best bets for Friday comes in the Big Apple, where our model fancies a total when the Rockies visit the Mets.
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Colorado Rockies vs. New York Mets
Friday, July 12, 2024 – 07:10 PM ET at Citi Field
We are looking for a lower-scoring game than this total implies Friday night, so we are betting the Under when Sean Manaea and the Mets host rookie Tanner Gordon and the Rockies.
As Consistent as They Come
The southpaw Sean Manaea sits at 5-3 in his first season in New York, but he probably deserves better given his 3.43 ERA over 17 starts and his ultra-consistency on the mound this year. After pitching mostly out of the bullpen for the Giants last season, he has relished returning to a full-time starter role.
What you see is what you get with Sean, which is a good thing considering he has allowed three runs or less in 14 of his 17 outings this year! That success is keyed by an increased usage of his slider rated 107 in Stuff+ as an accompaniment to his heavy 92.6 MPH sinker. That mix has generated a good strikeout rate of 8.76/9 and Manaea is in raging current form, having allowed just one earned run over his last three starts covering 18 innings.
He is facing a struggling Colorado offense ranked 25th in wRC+ against lefties at only 86.
Nice Arsenal
Gordon is a promising prospect, although he may not reach his potential while pitching in Colorado. Nonetheless, he has a deep five-pitch arsenal including a fastball that hit 96 MPH in the minors and a plus-rated slider. He has also shown good command in the minors, including this season with his walk rate at 2.14/9 at the AAA level at the time of his recall.
Granted his Major League debut was not a great one as he allowed five runs in 6.1 innings at Coors Field against the Cubs on Sunday. Still, he did not walk a single batter and generated a decent 10.2% swinging-strike rate in his first-ever taste of the big leagues. We can see some improvement tonight in his first National League start away from the altitude of Colorado.
The Pick
With Manaea pitching constantly well all year and the promising Gordon expected to build off his debut, we are backing the Under in Citi Field Friday.
Predicted Score: Mets 4 – Rockies 2
MLB Pick: Under 9 (-123) at Heritage Sports
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