Red Sox vs. Braves MLB Best Bets for May 11 (Archive)
Wednesday’s Boston-Atlanta game might be a good spot to put both the home side and the over in your MLB picks – if you trust in BABIP.
Boston Red Sox vs. Atlanta Braves
Wednesday, May 11, 2022 – 07:20 PM EDT at Truist Park
It’s mid-May in Major League Baseball, and the sportsbooks have already figured things out.
We’re about 30 games into the 2022 campaign – nearly twice as many games as they play during an entire NFL regular season – so the books have enough data on their hands to produce some seriously tight lines.
Join Now: $1,000 BMR 12-Week All Sports Challenge
Case in point: Wednesday’s game in Atlanta, where the home side opened as –135 favorites on the MLB odds board at BetOnline.
The projections at FiveThirtyEight have the reigning champions winning this game 56 percent of the time, which works out to –127 when you use the fantabulous BMR Odds Converter. Very close.
Even that tiny profit margin went poof in early betting. It took the sharps exactly 11 minutes to scoop that up and drive Atlanta down to –125, where they remain at press time.
We’re still waiting for the first totals to hit the board as I write this, but the overseas MLB lines have opened at eight runs, and that looks super-tight as well. What’s a Moneyball bettor to do?
Luck Be a Lady
Perhaps there’s some value for our betting picks after all. Baseball might be a largely mechanical sport where stats mean everything, but maybe the betting market (and even the projections) got thrown off just a bit by how lucky both of Wednesday’s starting pitchers have been this year. Yes, lucky.
Dame Fortune plays a large role in sports, larger than most casual bettors understand; one of the most important stats modern-day handicappers look at is BABIP, or Batting Average on Balls In Play.
Check Out: BMR’s Sports Betting Forum
This number is something that pitchers have very little control over. Sometimes a hard-hit ball goes directly into an infielder’s glove, sometimes a check-swing makes contact and the ball dribbles down the line for a base hit.
This brings us to our projected starters. Ian Anderson is due up for Atlanta, and he’s allowed a tiny .229 BABIP in five starts, well below his already low .255 career average.
Meanwhile, Boston’s Nathan Eovaldi has allowed a .256 BABIP, again far lower than his .310 career average. Regression to the mean is coming for both gentlemen – eventually.
You’re Getting Warmer
With that information in hand, we can consider betting the Over for Wednesday’s matchup, especially now that Heritage Sports has just opened the total at 7.5 runs.
The weather should help us out, too; it’s getting hotter in Hotlanta, with game-time temperatures forecast in the high 70s. The warmer it gets, the farther the ball travels. That’s just science.
Check Out Our Video Section: Today’s Picks of the Day
As for which of these two teams to bet on, their bullpens and their batting orders have enjoyed (or suffered) roughly the same luck according to BABIP, and each has underperformed their expected Pythagorean record – as measured by run differentials – by a single victory.
But we have one more clever stat to look at Left On-Base percentage (LOB%).
Somehow, every single runner Eovaldi has put on base has been stranded thus far, which is clearly unsustainable. Anderson’s 52.1 LOB% is much closer to normal.
So let’s throw a small sum at the classic favorite-Over parlay, and may the sphere be with you.
MLB Pick: Atlanta (-125) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
MLB Pick: Over 7.5 (-103) with Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.