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Padres vs. Rays MLB Best Bet: Tampa Bay To Cease Resistance vs. Pads
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LT Profits
- September 1, 2024
Table of Contents
MLB Pick: Padres ML (-131) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
We are 11-4 in our last 15 plays entering Sunday’s 15-game card of MLB betting matchups following a winning 2-1 Friday. We are back today with the three plays we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds available on top sportsbooks.
These value bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, which points to a side in Tampa at 1:40 PM ET in the Padres vs. Rays matchup on Sunday.
Remember, the new NFL season starts next week—don’t miss out on BMRForum.com’s $20K NFL 2024 Pick’em Pool contest for your chance to win big!
Check out our other MLB picks for Sunday:
San Diego Padres vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Sunday, September 01, 2024 – 01:40 PM ET at Tropicana Field
We feel that Dylan Cease of the Padres has a large pitching edge over Ryan Pepiot of the Rays, and are thus backing San Diego as a moderate favorite down in Tampa.
Bounce Back vs. Struggling Offense
Dylan Cease is putting together a great season in his first year in San Diego after previously spending his entire career with the White Sox. His 12-10 record does not do him justice as he enters with a 3.57 ERA while ranking ninth in the Major Leagues in xFIP at 3.30 and sixth in WAR at 3.9.
Dylan is also second in the league in strikeout rate at a hefty 11.15/9, trailing only Cy Young Award favorite Chris Sale. And while his walk rate could be better at 3.11/9, that is still an improvement from 4.02/9 in his final year in Chicago last year. He even has a no-hitter to his credit on July 25th against the Nationals.
Granted, he comes off his worst start in a while allowing four runs in 4.1 innings, but that snapped a streak of nine straight starts allowing three runs or less, including the no-no. We like his chances to bounce back against a Tampa Bay offense ranked 23rd in wRC+ against right-handers at just 92.
Good but Not Great
Now, we get that Ryan Pepiot is having a good season of his own at 7-6 with a 3.61 ERA and a high strikeout rate of 9.46/9. However, we still do not rate him at Cease’s level and this is one of the rare times where his strikeout rate gets dwarfed by his mound opponent,
Also concerning is his 4.02 xFIP being noticeably worse than his ERA. He has had a bit of luck with a BABIP allowed of .250 and escaping the unwanted combination of a low groundball rate of 36.6% and a hard contact rate of 30.3%.
And let us not forget that he is facing a San Diego lineup that is second in baseball in wRC+ against righties at 118, trailing only the hard-hitting Yankees.
The Pick
So, not only do we feel that the Padres have a nice pitching edge here, but they have also had a far superior offense against right-handers. We are betting on San Diego at a reasonable price on the road on Sunday.
Predicted Score: Padres 4 – Rays 2
MLB Pick: Padres ML (-131) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
