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Braves vs. Phillies MLB Best Bet: Nice Value on Atlanta To Chop Philly
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LT Profits
- September 1, 2024
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MLB Pick: Braves ML (+124) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
We are currently on an 11-4 run in our last 15 plays entering Sunday’s slate of MLB betting matchups after a winning 2-1 Friday. As usual, we have three more best bets from top sportsbooks for today’s slate that we feel hold great value.
These best bets and current MLB odds are based mostly on our proprietary model. Our model favors a side in Sunday Night Baseball from Philadelphia on ESPN with the Braves visiting the Phillies.
Remember, the new NFL season starts next week—don’t miss out on BMRForum.com’s $20K NFL 2024 Pick’em Pool contest for your chance to win big!
Check out our other MLB picks for Sunday:
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Sunday, September 01, 2024 – 07:10 PM ET at Citizens Bank Park
In what we see as a close pitching matchup, young Spencer Schwellenbach of the Braves seems to provide great line value at an underdog price visiting Aaron Nola and the Phillies. Therefore, we are backing Atlanta in an upset.
Fast Ascent
Spencer Schwellenbach has made a fairly quick ascent to the Major Leagues after being drafted in the second round of the 2021 draft, but he has shown that he is ready for the big leagues. He certainly deserved a better fate than his 5-6 record given the 3.72 ERA and excellent 3.09 xFIP through 15 starts covering 87 innings.
Spencer has displayed supreme poise and command that belies his young age, as he owns a terrific K/BB ratio of 10.55/1.86 per nine innings. He has a vast arsenal of five pitches that he has thrown over 13% of the time, led by a 96.0 MPH fastball that rates 109 on Stuff+. And batters are not getting good swings at that repertoire, given his good 14.8% swinging strike and 19.6% soft contact rates.
The rookie has faced the Phillies twice already this season and allowed a total of only three runs and 10 hits in 12.2 innings with 15 strikeouts against just one walk.
Is Price Deserved?
Now, we have always liked Aaron Nola and he is having another nice season at 12-6 with a 3.30 ERA and 3.64 xFIP. Our issue here however is with his odds here, as we do not feel he deserves this much favoritism against a pitcher with a better xFIP.
Also, Aaron has seen a dip in his strikeout rate this year to 8.28/9 from 9.39/9 last season, the first time that rate has been below one batter per inning since his rookie year back in 2015. That dip is supported by his swinging strike rate of 10.3% being at its lowest rate since 2016.
Furthermore, Nola has not pitched well in his three starts against the Braves this season, posting a 6.32 ERA over 15.2 innings.
The Pick
We simply do not feel that Nola should be a decided favorite in this spot with Schwellenbach having comparable numbers and the better xFIP. Add in Nola’s struggles vs. Atlanta this year and bet the Braves as underdogs on Sunday Night Baseball.
Predicted Score: Braves 4– Phillies 3
MLB Pick: Braves ML (+124) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
