Table of Contents
Mets vs. White Sox MLB Best Bet: Crochet To Weave an Under vs. Manaea
-
LT Profits
- September 1, 2024
Table of Contents
MLB Pick: Under 8 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
We enter Sunday’s full slate of MLB betting matchups 11-4 in our last 15 plays after a 2-1 Friday. We return today with three plays from top sportsbooks that we feel hold great betting value at the current MLB odds.
These plays are based mostly on our proprietary model. One of the best bets for Sunday comes in the Windy City where our model likes a total when the Mets visit the White Sox.
Remember, the new NFL season starts next week—don’t miss out on BMRForum.com’s $20K NFL 2024 Pick’em Pool contest for your chance to win big!
Check out our other MLB picks for Sunday:
New York Mets vs. Chicago White Sox
Sunday, September 01, 2024 – 02:10 PM ET at Guaranteed Rate Field
Garrett Crochet has been the brightest spot for the lowly White Sox this season, while Sean Manaea has also pitched consistently well for the Mets. This has us betting the Under in the Windy City on Sunday.
All-Star Year
Crochet made the AL All-Star team this season and with good reason. Do not be fooled by the 6-9 record while pitching for a team that has won 31 games all year. He has posted a 3.64 ERA and an outstanding 2,55 xFIP that ranks second best in baseball among pitchers with at least 100 innings behind only Chris Sale.
The White Sox did something right this season by converting Garrett Crochet into a starter, as he has responded with a great K/BB ratio of 12.59/2.17 per nine innings. That K-Rate would lead the majors, but his 128.2 innings is currently 8.1 innings short of qualifying. And that rare is not a fluke given his excellent swing strike rate of 16.2%.
Somehow, Crochet has gone 13 straight starts without recording a win, but that is entirely due to the pathetic Chicago offense as he allowed three runs or less in 12 of those starts with a 2.44 xFIP.
Very Consistent
Sean Manaea is also having a fine season in his first year with the Mets, and unlike Crochet, he has been rewarded with a 10-5 record. His 3.51 ERA is a career-best if we ignore his 2019 season when he made just five starts, and he still has a nice strikeout rate himself at 9.33/9 at the advancing age of 32.
But what we have loved best about Manaea this season has been his consistency. He has now allowed three runs or less in 13 of his last 14 starts while posting a 2.93 ERA and 3.80 xFIP during this time, and he has had 19 such outings in 23 total starts this season.
And of course, the southpaw is facing a White Sox lineup ranked dead last in wRC+ against left-handers at a mere 74.
The Pick
Crochet is always a prime “Under” target as a great pitcher for a team that cannot score. Add in the consistency of Manaea this season and back the Under in Chicago.
Predicted Score: Mets 4 – White Sox 2
MLB Pick: Under 8 (-108) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
