Notre Dame vs. Virginia College Football Week 11 Picks and Odds Analysis (Archive)
Time to pound that 64-point total on the NCAAF lines for Saturday’s game between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Virginia Cavaliers.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Virginia Cavaliers
Saturday, November 13, 2021- 7:30 PM EST At Scott Stadium
Are the No. 10 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-1 SU, 6-3 ATS) all that? It depends on whom you ask. Football Outsiders have them at No. 12 overall on both their F+ and SP+ efficiency charts (which still need updating at press time); Jeff Sagarin at The USA Today has them ranked eighth in the FBS, and FiveThirtyEight puts them exactly where they are in the polls. Looks like the Irish are pretty much where they should be after winning four straight SU and ATS.
Phooey. Here I was ready to tell you how over-valued this program is in the public eye, and how you should put the Virginia Cavaliers (6-3 SU and ATS) in your Week 11 college football picks instead. I doubt that will make any sense after we look at the projections for this matchup, which I suspect will hew closely to that Notre Dame –5.5 line on Bovada (visit our Bovada Review) .
A Cavalier Attitude
Speaking of which, let’s get right to it:
- Jeff Sagarin: Notre Dame –9.09
- FiveThirtyEight: ND 63 percent
- ESPN Football Power Index: ND 55.3 percent
Again, we see a bit of range within these three projections, but they balance out reasonably well. Those percentages work out to “fair” money lines (no vig attached) of –170 and –124 using the sanguine BMR Odds Converter; that’s roughly the same as college football spreads of –4.5 and –2 according to Wizard of Odds. The Cavs are available as +190 home dogs at GTbets (visit our GTbets Review), so maybe there’s some value with that particular line.
It’s Over
We’ve got a better idea here at the ranch. There’s a 64.5-point total on the board at Heritage, and Sagarin projects these two teams to score 71.44 points between them. The key here is Virginia’s imbalance. They’re No. 39 on the F+ charts, split between the No. 6-ranked offense in the FBS and the No. 99-ranked defense. With QB Brennan Armstrong at the helm, the Cavs are second overall at 401.0 yards passing per game – and No. 122 out of the 130 teams in total yards allowed at 466.2.
The weather gods are giving us a break, too. There’s rain in the forecast for Thursday and Friday, but Saturday should bring mostly clear skies over Charlottesville at game time, with temperatures in the mid-50s and not much wind to speak of. Let’s keep that bet size small; the Under is 6-3 for the Cavaliers, even with the Over getting to the pay window the past two games.
The Over is 5-4 for the well-balanced Fighting Irish, whom we’ll treat as a neutral commodity for our purposes, although QB Jack Doan has been feast or famine this year. All the more reason to make it a tiny bet and ride out the variance, as a good bettor should.
NCAAF Pick: Over 64.5 (–108) with Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.