North Carolina vs. Kansas NCAA Tournament Championship Game Last Chance Value Picks (Archive)
The Kansas Jayhawks are a one-seed while the North Carolina Tar Heels are sitting as an eight-seed in NCAAB. This doesn’t mean Kansas is so much better than North Carolina. But it does mean that Kansas was much more consistent this season.
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Kansas Jayhawks
Monday, April 04, 2022 – 09:20 PM EDT at Caesars Superdome
If shots don’t fall for Kansas, the Jayhawks will usually find a way. If North Carolina isn’t scoring at a high rate, things might not go in the Tar Heels’ favor.
North Carolina
The Tar Heels have been inconsistent on the defensive end this year. North Carolina will limit offensive rebounding to 21.6% and will also hold teams to a very low free throw rate. However, teams are also shooting just under 34% from downtown and the Tar Heels earn just 13.7% turnovers.
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The Tar Heels would rather defend and force tough shots. That might have worked against ACC teams but likely won’t affect Kansas as much. The Jayhawks have an incredible offense that is shooting 36.1% from deep and 53.8% from inside the arc.
On top of that, Kansas is still earning 33.2% offensive rebounds and could potentially catch North Carolina but surprise on the offensive glass.
Meanwhile, the Tar Heels are a younger team with less depth. Again, that will favor Kansas, knowing that North Carolina is going to have to rely on guys like Armando Bacot for about 35 minutes. Bacot is fighting an ankle injury he sustained on Saturday and likely isn’t 100% despite what he’s telling the media.
Kansas
On the other hand, Kansas is holding teams to 30.1% from deep and 46.7% from inside the arc. The Jayhawks aren’t dominating the defensive glass, but have done well enough, holding teams to 27,.8% offensive rebounds.
North Carolina will have to earn second chances because scoring from the field will be difficult. The Tar Heels are overall a worse offense than Kansas but are still shooting 36.2% from three and 50.6% from inside the arc.
Read More: Reasons Why North Carolina Will Lose in the NCAA Tournament Championship Game
You will also see the Tar Heels take more threes in this matchup as North Carolina averages 32.6% of its points from three this season.
Overall, it’s clearly hard to find value in a National Championship game. But Kansas at -4 makes a whole lot of sense. Kansas should be able to limit turnovers and shoot some really good looks. Meanwhile, North Carolina will have to rely on its starters for most of the game and that means relying on Bacot, who is already injured.
The Pick
If you’re looking for another bet and not looking to bet a side, you can look at taking the under 152 for the total. North Carolina will limit offensive rebounds and foul attempts for Kansas while Kansas will give North Carolina a hard time finding quality shots from the field. Kansas also limits foul shooting and will be fine on the offensive glass overall. Make sure to place your bets at a top-rated sportsbook.
NCAAB Pick: Kansas -4.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
NCAAB Pick: Under 152 (-110) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.