NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Parlay Picks of the Day (Archive)
Top sportsbooks have released their odds for tonight’s NCAA Tournament action. One Sweet 16 game, in particular, interests me as worth investing in Iowa State vs. Miami. For reasons that I will explain, you should play both spread and total for this game. Feel free to parlay both bets at one of BMR’s top-rated sportsbooks in order to maximize your profit.
Iowa State Cyclones vs. Miami Hurricanes
Friday, March 25, 2022 – 09:59 PM EDT at United Center
Turnovers
I like the "over" in this game because I expect both teams to score a lot of points off turnovers. Miami is great at forcing steals -- its defense ranks 10th nationally in steal rate -- and it is likewise top-level at converting steals into points within 10 seconds. In their most recent NCAA Tournament game, the Hurricanes amassed 30 points against Auburn off fast-break opportunities and 17 off of turnovers.
They are aggressive on defense, trapping ball screens and putting strong pressure on the ball. With this pressure, they easily unsettle the opposing ball-handler. As his high turnover rate suggests, Cyclone point guard Tyrese Hunter is prone to being unsettled. Overall, the Cyclone offense ranks 294th nationally at limiting its turnovers.
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It is true that Iowa State's offense ranks so poorly in this category partly because of lazy passes, passes that its ball-handlers will telegraph. But it is hard to ask Cyclone ball-handlers to change their habits at this point in the season. To be fair to Iowa State, its defense likewise excels at forcing turnovers. Its defense ranks 12th nationally at forcing steals.
While Miami's offense ranks highly at limiting its turnovers, keep in mind that many of its offensive possessions are short and end in easy scoring opportunities because of how many steals and general fast-break opportunities its defense accrues. It is thus trivially true that Miami's offensive turnover rate is low. Its turnover rate would be a lot higher if one only considered its possessions in the half-court.
Plus, Iowa State has repeatedly thrived against offenses with a low turnover rate. Most recently, Iowa State turned a notoriously patient and careful Badger offense 17 times. Other examples of teams that rank among the top-three nationally at limiting its turnovers and that fell victim to the Cyclone defense include Iowa.
Cyclone defenders will use length to intercept passing lanes and active hands to contest passes. On both sides then, easy points will easily up the scoring total while also creating a faster, more frenetic pace of NCAA basketball.
Key Trend
As for the side, I like Iowa State primarily because of this key trend: the Cyclones are undefeated against teams outside the Big 12. It is hard for teams less familiar with the Cyclones to prepare for them. Many NCAA Tournament teams can attest to this difficulty. For example, Iowa State beat Iowa by 20. The Cyclones also won by six at Creighton, by 19 against Memphis on a neutral court, and by 12 against a Xavier squad that nearly made the Tournament.
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Other teams are not used to Iowa State's physical brand of basketball. Its man-to-man pressure defense, its well-organized rotations, and its traps all place unparalleled levels of stress on opponents. While Miami will score many points off turnovers, its half-court offense will be a mess against Iowa State's nationally fifth-most efficient defense.
Scoring at the Basket
Compared to its first two games of the NCAA Tournament -- against LSU and then Wisconsin -- Iowa State will have a relatively easy time scoring in the half-court. LSU and Wisconsin could employ seven-footers to contest Cyclone shot attempts at the rim. Their presence helps explain the shocking number of layups and other close shot attempts at the hoop that Cyclone players missed.
Typically, Hunter likes to attack the basket. While Izaiah Brockington is a bit less inclined to do so, he is normally more efficient at the basket. As a result of its lack of rim protection, Miami ranked second-to-last in the ACC at limiting opposing two-point percentage and 11th in block rate.
Spacing
Facing a smaller Hurricane defense will allow Iowa State to go small. Iowa State is known for running offense through post players positioned at the top of the key. It will execute many dribble hand-offs and some ball screens. The Cyclones have tried out many different pairings in their dribble hand-off game.
Tonight's game will present a particularly strong opportunity for the smaller Aljaz Kunc. Kunc would punish Hurricane defenders for sagging off him because he's converting 39.4 percent of his three-point opportunities this season. Having a big man who can shoot will create more spacing inside for guys like Hunter and Brockington to attack the basket against those vulnerable Hurricane rim-protectors.
Small ball also means more movement and spreading out the defense. Sometimes you will see a lot of cutting and roll-and-replace stuff in Iowa State's offensive possessions. While the positioning of Iowa State bigs away from the basket means fewer offensive rebounds, Miami is ranked atrociously in defensive rebounding percentage. So second-chance points will still be available to the Cyclone offense.
The Verdict
Both teams will score a lot of turnovers. Iowa State, though, will remain undefeated against non-conference opponents also because its half-court offense will be stronger due to its combination of rim-attacking guard play and positive spacing. For the above reasons, parlay Iowa State and the "over" for your NCAAB picks. Feel free to use our trusty parlay calculator for your parlay betting needs.
Scoring Prediction: Cyclones 75 - Hurricanes 67
Parlay Pick
- Cyclones +3 (-108)
- Over 132.5 (-108)
NCAAB Best Bet: Two-Legged Parlay (+271) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.