NCAA Tournament Final Four Last Chance Value Picks (Archive)
With the Final Four just one day away, here are two bets to make before the two games in New Orleans, LA. Let’s see what the NCAAB odds for these matchups tell us!
Villanova Wildcats vs. Kansas Jayhawks
Saturday, April 02, 2022 – 06:09 PM EDT at Caesars Superdome
The Villanova Wildcats will take on the Kansas Jayhawks in the first game of the Final Four in New Orleans. Villanova will play this game without Justin Moore, who tore his Achilles in the previous game.
Join Now: $1,000 BMR 12-Week All Sports Challenge
Moore and most of the players at Villanova have been very good at limiting turnovers. But now the pressure will sit more on Collin Gillespie, Jermaine Samuels, and Eric Dixon with Moore’s absence.
Villanova is shooting 83% from the foul line, which is the best rate in college basketball. From long-range, the Wildcats have hit 35.7% of threes but from inside, Villanova is shooting under 50% from the field.
The Wildcats figure to get some offensive rebounds but ultimately could struggle from the field with Kansas holding opponents to 29.6% from deep and 47% from inside the arc.
On the other hand, Kansas is shooting 35.6% from deep and 53.8% from inside. The Jayhawks are the much better offense and also grab 33.1% of offensive rebounds.
That’s big news because Villanova is allowing teams to earn 28.7% of offensive rebounds this season. Most believe Villanova will keep this game close against Kansas.
But if Kansas goes on another ridiculous run like last week, the Jayhawks are going to win this game by a solid margin. For our NCAAB picks, Kansas at -4.5 has value.
NCAAB Pick: Kansas -4.5 (-110) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Duke Blue Devils
Saturday, April 02, 2022 – 08:49 PM EDT at Caesars Superdome
Following the Villanova/Kansas game will be North Carolina going up against Duke. This is the first time these two opponents have played a game in the NCAA Tournament.
The committee always tries to keep these two rivals away but with both teams in the Final Four, there’s no stopping this game.
NCAAB Picks: Free Picks from Expert NCAAB Handicappers
North Carolina embarrassed Duke, on the road, during Duke’s senior day, scoring over 90 points. Since that point, North Carolina has looked much better than an eight-seed.
The Tar Heels are holding teams to just 21.2% offensive rebounds and have been able to limit fouls at a good rate.
The Tar Heels won’t force many turnovers, earning under 14% per game, and are struggling to defend the perimeter.
North Carolina is giving up 34% from three and 47.5% from inside the arc. If Duke can shoot at a high percentage, the Blue Devils will be fine from deep.
Read More: Final Four Predictions: Who Will Play in the NCAA Tournament Championship Game and Why
If shots don’t fall early, second chances will be hard to come by. Currently, Duke is averaging 37% from deep and 56.3% from inside.
The offense shouldn’t struggle. But if jitters or pressure gets to them early, points will be hard to come by without second chances of foul shot attempts.
On the other hand, Duke is also doing a very good job at limiting fouls. The Blue Devils, like North Carolina, won’t force a whole lot of turnovers but have held teams to 31.8% from deep and 46.6% from inside the arc.
The Tar Heels, however, are shooting 36.1% from deep and 50.7% from inside the arc while earning 31% offensive rebounds. North Carolina can really dictate this game on the glass knowing Duke is allowing 28.9% offensive rebounds per game.
North Carolina has a great chance of winning this game but the reality is that neither team will get to the foul line all that much and shooting likely won’t be at its peak during this game either. For my best bets, there’s value on the under 151.
NCAAB Pick: Under 151 (-110) with BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.