Michigan State vs. Illinois NCAA Basketball Picks and Odds Analysis (Archive)
Will the Illinois Fighting Illini have their big man on the floor when the Michigan State Spartans come to Champaign for a crucial Big Ten clash on Tuesday’s sports betting calendar? Let’s analyze this matchup and keep cashing out!
Michigan State Spartans vs. Illinois Fighting Illini
Tuesday, January 25, 2022 – 7:00 PM EST at State Farm Center
Illinois hasn’t been able to live up to some lofty expectations this season, and injuries to key players have definitely played a role in their inconsistencies as the Fighting Illini prepare to host Michigan State in a nationally broadcast affair. Brad Underwood’s bunch is likely going to be without Kofi Cockburn due to a concussion that has the 7-foot Jamaican questionable.
Tom Izzo and the Spartans also have lofty expectations as one of the favorites on the NCAA basketball futures in the Big Ten. Michigan State is presently in the catbird seat looking down on the rest of the conference in the standings, and the Spartans would love nothing more than a road win that would hand Illinois a third consecutive loss.
Spartans 4-0 SU and ATS on the Road
Even with their recent struggles, the Fighting Illini still draw the chalk line for Tuesday’s tilt, with shops such as YouWager (visit our YouWager Review) offering the home side at -5. Both teams have seen two of their last three games skip past the totals, and that number is 144½ after opening a half-point lower.
Proof there is no easy out in the Big Ten came 10 days ago in East Lansing where Northwestern pulled off a nice upset with a 64-62 win over Michigan State. The loss halted a string of nine consecutive wins for the Spartans, and a dejected Izzo noted after the game, “(The Wildcats) played harder.” Northwestern was getting 9½ points and ended up with 17 offensive rebounds in the game, the same number of turnovers Michigan State committed.
VIDEO PICKS: Watch BMR’s Free Expert Sports Betting Picks for Today
The Spartans bounced back from the defeat by turning in a road upset of their own last Friday. In Madison as a 3-point underdog against Wisconsin, Michigan State started strong to build a 17-point lead in the first half before settling for an 86-74 victory. Along with almost doubling up the Badgers on the boards, the Spartans outscored Wisconsin 22-10 at the free-throw line.
Winning the glass battle has been a regular occurrence for Michigan State with Izzo’s outfit 16th in the country pulling down 40 boards a game. That number represents a true team effort with no Spartan ranking in the top 100 in rebounds on the season.
‘Over’ Has Been Winning Trend in Illini Home Games
Cockburn was apparently injured during practice before Illinois hosted Purdue a week ago, then got knocked around against the Boilermakers to force him into concussion protocol. He was definitely off his game against Purdue, fouling out and seeing a string of 9-straight double-doubles come to an end.
The Fighting Illini were just getting Andre Curbelo back from a lengthy absence due to a concussion when they faced the Boilermakers, and the sophomore guard had a solid 20-point effort against Purdue. Curbelo then came back down to earth with only four points in the follow-up game at Maryland last Friday.
Illinois went to College Park as a 4½-point favorite on the college basketball odds board and built a 6-point lead early in the second half of the back-and-forth affair. That’s when the Fighting Illini ran out of steam, and the Terrapins closed strong with a 24-7 run over the final eight minutes for the 81-65 decision.
‘Dogs Cover Three of Last Four Meetings
This is the first of two meetings this season with the return date in East Lansing a little less than four weeks from now. Michigan State has dominated the rivalry over the last 15 years or so to wrestle the series lead from Illinois at 64-60. The Spartans have posted the winning NCAAB score in the last three meetings, and 15 of the last 22 matchups.
Underdogs have covered three of the last four get-togethers, and that was the case last season in the lone contest as the Spartans enjoyed an 81-72 triumph getting 6½ on their home floor. The Fighting Illini scored the game’s first five points, and Michigan State took over from that point on. The Spartans’ smothering defense in the first half set the tone for that contest.
Illinois is perfectly capable of winning without Cockburn on the floor, especially with the Fighting Illini fans backing their guys at home. This spread just seems inflated by a bucket or two, leaving me with a college basketball pick in the Spartans.
NCAAB Pick: Michigan State +5½ (-109) with GTbets (visit our GTbets Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.