Jazz vs. Mavericks NBA Playoffs Game 5 Odds, Preview and Pick (Archive)
The Utah Jazz and Dallas Mavericks are tied two games apiece as they head into a critical matchup from Dallas on Monday night.
Utah Jazz vs. Dallas Mavericks
Monday, April 25, 2022 – 09:30 PM EDT at American Airlines Center
Luka’s Back But Jazz Tied Series
Despite the return of Luka Doncic to the Mavs’ lineup in Game 4, the Mavs couldn’t close on the road and ended up losing to go back home with a tied series. Star players making their return to the lineup after an extended rest is already tough during the regular season, but in the postseason it’s even tougher with the other team being a quality opponent and playing extremely tough defense.
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Despite all of this, the Mavs didn’t look bad at all in Luka’s return. They fell behind early only to storm back in the third quarter and one has to think that tonight if Dallas plays as they did in the third quarter of Game 4, the Jazz are getting beat by double figures in this game.
Defense
Where I was impressed was the Mavs’ defense. Dallas held Utah; one of the league’s best home offenses, to only 100 points and 40 percent from the field.
This was after a pretty poor defensive effort in Game 3 despite the win, so now that the series is tied and heading back to Dallas, it’s a perfect opportunity to bet on the Mavs’ bouncing back here with their star continuing to gain his conditioning and rhythm back. Dallas has been the best defensive team in three of the four games in this series and I’m looking for a payoff of that in the first half of Game 5.
The Sharp Pick
While I think betting the Mavs here is a good NBA pick, I like one more play a little better and it’s in the first half total. While the full game total for this one is trending upward towards the 200-teens, the first half total is only 103 points.
First halves have been low scoring so far in this series except for Game 3 and now that the series is down to a best of three, the first half of this fifth game becomes a huge turning point. If the Mavs can grab the lead, slow the pace and force the Jazz to play from behind, that is a recipe for success for them.
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Dallas allowed just 109.2 points per 100 possessions in the first halves of their home games this season, which ranked them inside the top 10 in the NBA in that category. Furthermore, these two teams have been playing at a snail’s pace and when you combined enhanced defense with a tied series, this first half may see less than 100 points scored.
These two teams have been playing at the slowest pace of any series so far in these playoffs and that’s mostly due to the Mavs. In two home games in this series, Dallas is playing at a pace of fewer than 90 possessions per game and 89 possessions per 48 minutes in the first halves of those two games.
If they can slow down this game and limit the number of possessions they give to the Jazz, especially after a missed shot or turnover, they are going to win this game and the score will stay relatively low early in the game.
NBA Pick: 1st Half Under 103 (-105) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
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