The NCAA Tournament has been wild so far, but it is now time for things to get serious. In six short days, the field dipped from 68 teams with dreams of winning it all to just 16. Powerhouses like Kentucky are out of the field, and Cinderella stories are being written.
Every team left in the field deserves to be here. The paths have varied from facing two double-digit seeds to upsetting a team like Baylor, but that no longer matters. If you withstand two games on the biggest stage, you have to be taken seriously.
Now that teams get to regroup, this will be an interesting time. Can teams who got hot stay there? Can teams who barely scraped by find their dominant ways again? An example of this is when Houston plays Arizona. Houston looked like one of the best teams in the first two rounds of March Madness. Arizona is the better seed, but they needed overtime to avoid an upset.
According to Bovada (visit our Bovada Review), Arizona is favored by only 2 points. Will they find a way to turn things around? Here are keys for each team with some picks for the Sweet 16.
Thursday, March 24, 2022 – 09:59 PM EDT at AT&T Center
Houston has a surprisingly strong defense, and that is why they made it to the Sweet 16. Arizona will have to be smarter with the basketball in this game. They lost the turnover battle against TCU, and that can’t happen again.
If you want a silver lining, Arizona won on Sunday despite having no outside shooting game. Every player went cold. That is unlikely to happen again, so they should be able to rely on jumpers more. They’ll need to knock some shots down early to gain some confidence, but winning outside is another key that will likely help them in this game.
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Arizona had three players log over 40 minutes in the overtime win vs. TCU. They’ll get to rest, but the only way you can sustain that is to dictate the pace. Arizona needs to decide when to speed up and slow down. As long as they are playing under control when things get fast, they should be comfortable in this game.
What about the upset-hunger Houston Cougars? Can they win again?
Houston has to win in the paint. The reason Arizona survived against TCU was that the Horned Frogs had no answer for Christian Koloko inside. With his size, this isn’t surprising. Still, you have to do something that will limit his production without getting your best players into foul trouble.
As with every underdog, starting the game off strong is important. Both teams are resilient, so you won’t win this game in the first 10 minutes. However, it is important for Houston to see early success and for Arizona to realize that they are in another fight after struggling in the second round.
Read More: NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Preview
Houston needs to win in the margins. By that, I mean that they need to beat Arizona by doing the small things well. They need to be a better rebounding team. They need to execute out of timeouts. They should manage the clock better. You don’t win games by doing any one thing on this list well, but you can stack them up and become an overwhelming presence in every facet of the game. That is how you can overcome a talent gap in this game.
Arizona’s nail-biting win was not indicative of who they are as a team. They should regroup and bounce back from that near-upset. However, Houston is a strong force. They deserve to be here, and an upset would not shock me.
While I like Houston’s trajectory, Arizona is my NCAAB pick to win it all. I projected this matchup in the Sweet 16, and I’ll stick with my pick of Arizona winning. I don’t love the value of this line on either side, but I’ll pick Houston to cover. While I am sticking with Arizona to win, I don’t see them running away with this one. It should be a nail-biter, and they could easily lose.
As for the totals, I like the over. This may go to overtime, and Arizona will look to run up the score.
NCAAB Pick: Houston +2 (-110) at Bovada
NCAAB Pick: Over 145 (-110) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.