Giants vs. Mets MLB Predictions for April 19 (Archive)
The Mets and Giants have seven wins heading into a series in Queens. Which team can get ahead first in Monday’s series opener between New York and San Francisco? Let’s see what the MLB odds for this matchup tell us!
San Francisco Giants vs. New York Mets
Tuesday, April 19, 2022 – 03:10 PM EDT at Citi Field
The New York Mets will play a doubleheader starting at 3:10 against the San Francisco Giants. I already wrote about the first game yesterday, so here’s a bit of the same thing you read yesterday for the first game of the doubleheader.
Tylor Megill will take the mound for the Mets to start the series. Megill is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA through two starts.
He obviously leads the majors in most categories in the MLB and he’s looking to carry all of that momentum over into this game.
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Dating back to last year, Megill has a 4.04 xFIP with 26.5% strikeouts and 6.5% walks. He’s also limited line-drive contact and gets nearly 45% of ground balls.
The Giants have one of the best lineups in baseball. It’s not a flashy lineup but it’s a lineup that just gets the job done.
Dating back to last season, the Giants projected lineup has a .233 ISO and wOBA of .353 with 10.3% walks against righties.
Strikeouts are high at 26.2% but overall, the Giants rake against righties. Megill has had his struggles against lefties allowing a .387 wOBA and ISO of .272 but righties have been having trouble against Megill.
On the other hand, Alex Cobb will get the call for the Giants. He’s been one of the more underrated pitchers in the game and the Giants snagged him up from the Angels in the off-season.
Cobb has a 3.60 xFIP with 25.5% strikeouts dating back to last season. Walks are a bit high at 8.4% but Cobb gets 52.7% ground balls to limit the damage.
The Mets were obviously a poor offense last season and don’t have the numbers that the Giants have dating back to last year offensively.
Only Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, and Eduardo Escobar have legitimate consistent power against righties.
Still, when the Mets make contact, 22.2% of that contact has been line drives. The total for this game is sitting at 6.5, but juiced up to -125. This is one of the lowest totals we’ve seen this season.
Prediction
There were moments last year when Alex Cobb was a bit unlucky with ground balls becoming base hits.
He struggled a bit with runners on base too. Meanwhile, Megill isn’t going to finish the season with a 0.00 ERA.
He’s had his struggles against lefties and will need to face at least five lefties in the Giants’ lineup.
The Giants have smacked righties dating back to last year and have the offense to power through a Mets bullpen that has been a bit weak so far.
For your MLB picks, grab the over 6.5 at -125. A 4-3 win gets you a win for the over.
Score Prediction: Mets 5, Giants 2
MLB Pick: Over 6.5 (-125) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
San Francisco Giants vs. New York Mets
Tuesday, April 19, 2022 – 06:40 PM EDT at Citi Field
2nd Game
In the second game of the Doubleheader, it’ll be Max Scherzer taking on Logan Webb in an extremely exciting battle between two dominant races.
Logan Webb has a 2.75 xFIP with 26.6% strikeouts along with a 5.5% walk rate dating back to last season.
Webb induces over 60% of ground balls dating back to last season and has been another underrated pitcher for the Giants.
The Mets don’t have all that much power. We talked about it in the first game against Cobb. The Mets will need better offense against righties in comparison to last season.
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The Mets will likely get there but the analytics aren’t showing it yet. Meanwhile, Max Scherzer hasn’t looked incredible to start the season but he’s still 2-0 on the year.
He’s got an xFIP of 33.8% with 5.6% walks. Scherzer isn’t going to induce a whole lot of ground balls, but he will keep the ball in play, keeping ISO numbers down.
The Giants, again, have a much better lineup against righties but at this time, we don’t know who is sitting the first or second games.
Overall, the Giants still have more flexibility at this time with the Mets having a couple of guys in COVID protocol, including Brandon Nimmo and Mark Canha.
The projected lineup against righties for the Giants has a .237 ISO and wOBA of .355 but I’m not expecting the same lineup for both games. Therefore, take those numbers with caution.
Prediction
The Mets are projected to win both games of the Double-Header. I just don’t see it. I believe a split makes more sense.
Webb is one of the more underrated pitchers and just checks more boxes than Max Scherzer does dating back to last year.
With that in mind take the Giants at +110 in this second game of the doubleheader for your best bets.
Score Prediction: Giants 4, Mets 2
MLB Pick: Giants (+110) with BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.