Bucks vs. Jazz Free NBA Picks and Odds Analysis (Archive)
Two of the top teams in the NBA face off when the Utah Jazz host the Milwaukee Bucks tonight. Both teams are fighting for a playoff position, so we should get a great effort from both sides. In a battle of two of the NBA’s best, which team is the right NBA pick?
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Utah Jazz
Monday, March 14, 2022 – 10:00 PM EDT at Vivint Arena
Milwaukee Bucks
The Milwaukee Bucks suffered a large loss on Saturday night in San Francisco against the Golden State Warriors. The Warriors blew the Bucks off the court for a 122-109 win. It was definitely a disappointing performance by Milwaukee. It was a prime-time game, a potential Finals preview, and Milwaukee laid an egg. The loss ended a six-game winning streak for the Bucks.
Milwaukee will be looking to bounce back by concentrating on one of their keys to their success, their defense. Milwaukee has a major advantage because all three of their offensive stars are also excellent on the defensive end. Some teams need to hide their stars on the defensive end (see James Harden or Trae Young). All of Milwaukee's offensive leaders are defensive studs in their own right.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is a serious contender for Defensive Player of the Year. He has the quickness to defend ball-handlers on the perimeter and is also strong enough to block shots in the paint. Giannis' versatile defensive ability makes him a weapon on both ends of the floor.
Jrue Holiday is one of the best point-of-attack defenders in the league. Holiday prevents opposing teams from getting into their sets easily. A lot of times, this will lead to the shot clock winding down before the teams have effectively run their offensive play. This works to Milwaukee's advantage and is one of the reasons why Holiday is so important to the success of the Milwaukee Bucks.
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Khris Middleton is an excellent defender from the 2 through 4 positions. Middleton can defend shooting guards and power forwards, as well as his position of small forward. He uses his feet to stay in front of opponents and has long arms to contest shots without fouling. Milwaukee's defensive acumen is often overlooked when talking about the defending champs.
Utah Jazz
The Utah Jazz won their most recent outing against the Sacramento Kings 134-125. It was a routine victory for Utah, which has more talent and more commitment on the defensive end than the woeful Kings. The win moved Utah to 6-4 over the last 10.
The Jazz are in a battle with the Dallas Mavericks for the fourth seed. They will probably play the Mavericks in the first round, and if so, they definitely want home-court advantage in that close matchup.
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Utah plays excellent defense as well, led by reigning Defensive Player of the Year, Rudy Gobert. But unlike Milwaukee's balanced defense, the Jazz are heavily reliant on Gobert's rim protection ability. The Jazz aren't as strong on the perimeter defensively as the Bucks and it'll be interesting to see if the Bucks are able to take advantage of this.
The Bucks were not able to take advantage of this in the first meeting between the teams where the Utah Jazz won 107-95 in Milwaukee.
Donovan Mitchell continues to be one of the most underrated stars in the league. Mitchell is never talked about in the top-tier players, but his statistics and ability to create say otherwise. He is averaging 25 points and 5 assists per game. Mitchell's ability to create in the half-court has been key to the Jazz offense, especially late in the shot clock.
Key Matchup
Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Rudy Gobert. It will be interesting to see if the Jazz allows Giannis to pull Rudy Gobert out of the paint, where he is so crucial to the Jazz's defense. My guess is they will not, but regardless, Giannis will often beat his man and be challenged by Gobert at the rim. These players know each other well and have gotten the better of each other on different occasions. Giannis Antetokounmpo is at his best in the paint, and that's where Rudy Gobert thrives on defense.
If Giannis is able to have a big night, even against the great shot-blocking ability of Gobert, the Bucks will get the win and cover at the NBA odds.
If Gobert is able to lower Giannis' excellent efficiency in the paint, the Jazz will get the win.
Best Bet
As bad as Milwaukee looked in the loss to the Warriors, I think they will bounce back here tonight. They should be focused after such an embarrassing loss on national TV. This game will be nationally televised as well.
I think the ability of the Bucks to defend on the perimeter will be the difference in this game. The Bucks can slow the Jazz down on the perimeter. The Jazz will have problems stopping the Bucks at the point-of-attack. Today's best bet is the Milwaukee Bucks.
NBA Pick: Milwaukee Bucks -1.5 (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
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