Braves vs. Padres Sunday Night Baseball Preview and Free Pick (Archive)
The Atlanta Braves and San Diego Padres will look to finish the series with a winning record. Currently, both teams have a 5-5 record, but the winner of tonight’s MLB game will move on to the next series with a 6-5 record and be above .500.
After allowing eight runs in his last outing, can Yu Darvish get back to his old self against the Atlanta Braves on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball coverage? Keep reading for a full breakdown of the MLB odds and a winning pick!
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres
Sunday, April 17, 2022 – 07:08 PM EDT at Petco Park
The bright lights are shining under Bryce Elder, who will get the start for the Braves. Elder will be pitching on national television against Yu Darvish of the Padres. If you haven’t heard of Elder, you’re not living under a rock. This is only his second career appearance after he made his major league debut against the Nationals earlier this year.
Elder threw 5.2 innings of work and allowed three runs on six hits along with four strikeouts. Elder didn’t walk a single batter and also induced 10 ground balls. There were a lot of positives out of Elder in his first start and so, therefore, the Braves are rolling with him again and pushing Huascar Ynoa’s start back a day.
Capping games with very little information on a pitcher is always hard. Elder’s got one game in the MLB and while he looked good it’s hard to know how he’ll perform in the future. His xFIP in that first game was a 3.54 and he, again, induced over 55% ground balls in that game.
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The right-hander struggled against lefties in that start, however, giving up a wOBA of .426 and ISO of .438 in 16 plate appearances. Lefties in the lineup for the Padres include Trent Grisham, Jake Cronenworth, Eric Hosmer, Jurickson Profar, and rookie prospect C.J. Abrams. The Padres aren’t all that powerful against righties but it should be noted that Elder wasn’t very good against lefties.
On the other hand, Yu Darvish looked absolutely awful in his second start of the season for the Padres. Darvish went six innings and allowed no runs against the Diamondbacks in his first outing but gave up nine runs on eight hits in 1.2 innings against the Giants in his second outing.
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Darvish was a bit inconsistent last season and this year, he’s been getting in a ton of trouble. Even against the Diamondbacks, Darvish walked four batters and only struck three, despite not allowing a run.
The top of the Braves lineup includes righty mashers. Ozzie Albies, Matt Olson, Austin Riley, and Marcell Ozuna have all had very high success against righties with ISO numbers above .215 and wOBA at .350 or higher dating back to last season.
Prediction
Therefore, for my MLB picks, I like this game to go over the total in the first five innings. Darvish won’t be able to escape damage against the reigning champions and Elder is going to have some trouble getting out the lefties in the Padres’ order.
The total is sitting at four at -115. If each team scores two runs, you’ll push this bet. If you can get five runs, it’s a win. With a pitcher like Elder on the mound, it’s possible that he can break and give up the runs himself.
MLB Pick: Over 4 First 5 Innings (-115) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.