Osorio vs. Fernandez Abierto GNP Seguros 2022 Final Picks (Archive)
The youth movement is in full effect in Monterrey, Mexico as two of the tour’s up-and-coming players face off in the finals today. Leylah Fernandez is defending the first title she ever won. She will not face an easy task, however, against the dynamic Camila Osorio.
Let’s take a look at today’s final match to share the winning WTA pick!
Camila Osorio vs. Leylah Fernandez
Sunday, March 6, 2022 – 5:30 PM EST at Estadio GNP Seguros
Camila Osorio has qualified for her third career final. She defeated Nuria Parrizas Diaz 6-4, 6-4. In each set, she was behind a break of serve, but she constantly put pressure on Parrizas Diaz’s serve. Osorio had 16 break point opportunities, and she was successful on six of them, leading to her straight-set victory.
Camila Osorio has been dealing with an elbow injury this week, but she continues to play through it and play at a high level. We have to hope that the injury does not affect the outcome of this exciting match today. After a slow start to 2022, it appears that Osorio has found her form, and it would be disappointing for an injury to derail this newfound level of play.
The semifinal win was encouraging for Osorio as she avoided the potential "letdown spot" coming off one of the biggest wins of her career. In the quarterfinals, she defeated Elina Svitolina who is the number one seed of the tournament. This was only Osorio’s second win against a top 30 opponent in her career.
The match against Svitolina was a tumultuous three-set affair in which Osorio came back from two breaks down in the third set. It would have been perfectly understandable if Osorio seemed spent or tired after that grueling effort. The fact that the young player could focus and play her best even after such an exciting, emotional win is definitely a sign of poise for the up-and-coming Colombian star.
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Leylah Fernandez is the defending champion here in Monterrey. Fernandez excels in the conditions in Mexico. Fernandez has won 16 of her last 19 matches in Mexico. She has won 18 of her last 23 matches in North America. Clearly, Fernandez feels at home playing in the Western Hemisphere. Fernandez has won 9 matches in a row here in Monterrey. After Fernandez's win over Beatriz Haddad Maia in the semifinals of Monterrey, Fernandez improved to 4-0 in her career for WTA semifinal matches.
Fernandez came out on fire and won the first set in just 22 minutes. The second set was a little longer, lasting 50 minutes, but Fernandez had an early break and seemed to be in control the whole way. Fernandez had 14 winners and 16 unforced errors in the win. Fernandez will be looking to improve upon her 1-2 career record in the WTA Finals. She lost here to Heather Watson in 2020, won the title here last year, and then lost in the US Open final to Emma Raducanu.
Fernandez and Osorio have met before, but not at the WTA level. They have played three times in junior Grand Slams. Fernandez beat Osorio at the junior French Open in 2018 and 2019. Osorio prevailed when they faced each other at the junior US Open in 2018. This will be their first meeting on the WTA tour and it seems fitting that it will be in a match with high-stakes. Watching both young players develop, it is safe to say that this will be the first of many hard-fought matches between the women on the WTA tour.
In this match, I think the experience of Leylah Fernandez will shine through. While both are young talented players, Leylah has more experience in dealing with these pressure situations. Fernandez should also be able to be more aggressive, as her game is more balanced. Osorio is comfortable defending. Both players are defensive, but Leylah has more developed aggression in her game.
As well as Osorio has been playing this week, I believe that she's met her match today against the more experienced Fernandez. Also, the elbow injury gives me pause to back Osorio at underdog WTA odds (+235). Therefore, I will play it safe and take the "under" 20.5 games. I think it gives us a better opportunity than the -4 games.
With the 'under' 20.5, we would win on a 6-4, 6-4 scoreline, while the -4 would push on a 6-4, 6-4. The -4 does give us a chance to win if it goes three sets, so it is a tough decision. In the end, however, it is more likely that it is a quick win for the defending champion rather than a 3 set cover. Today's best bet for WTA Monterrey is Camila Osorio/Leylah Fernandez 'under' 20.5 games.
WTA Pick: Camila Osorio/Leylah Fernandez Under 20.5 games (-116) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
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