The BNP Paribas Open starts in Indian Wells on Wednesday. The tournament in Indian Wells is the first Masters 1000 event of the season. Before the tournament begins, there is an excellent opportunity for us to make good investments by looking at the outright market. After looking at the betting odds, what are the best tennis picks?
Rafael Nadal
Rafael Nadal is currently number 4 in the world. However, he has been the best player in the world this season with a 15-0 start to the year. He has won the title in each of the three tournaments he’s entered. Nadal has entered and been victorious at the Melbourne Summer Set, the Australian Open, and the Mexican Open.
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If Nadal were to win three more matches he would be in third place for the longest unbeaten streak to start a season in the Open Era. Only Novak Djokovic has performed better, going 26-0 in 2020 and 41-0 in 2011.
If Nadal were to win his first 3 matches it would break the 17-0 start of Roger Federer in 2018 and in 1997. Nadal’s longest win streak in his career is 25 matches. That streak was from Indian Wells to Beijing in 2013. His 84% win percentage at Indian Wells is his best at any hardcourt Masters event.
Rafael Nadal is also trying to tie Novak Djokovic’s record for Masters titles. Novak Djokovic is the all-time leader in Masters titles at 37. Nadal is currently at 36. If Nadal wins the title this year, he would also become the oldest man to ever win the title at Indian Wells.
Nadal would be 2 months older than the current oldest champion, Roger Federer when he won in 2017. Now that we have detailed the numerous accolades and ambitions for Nadal in this tournament, let’s look into why he is the best outright to bet. Nadal’s excellent level of tennis was on display in the Australian Open.
His major issue in the tournament was conditioning and his ability to maintain his elite level for five sets, which is rare for Rafael Nadal’s career. However in Indian Wells, he will not have to play best of 5, the tournament is conducted in the best of 3 formats.
Nadal’s major rival of course would be Novak Djokovic. Right now it is unlikely that Djokovic will play due to vaccine requirements. That leaves Daniil Medvedev as the next highest favorite in the tournament by ATP odds. Fortunately for Nadal, Medvedev matches up poorly with the consistent left-hander.
On the slow hard courts, Nadal can rip his forehand to Medvedev’s backhand and has an advantage in that rally. The slower surface also mitigates the effects of Medvedev’s deadly serve. If Nadal and Medvedev meet in this tournament, I definitely would favor Nadal.
Alexander Zverev and Stefanos Tsitsipas are the two next highest contenders. Zverev is once again under scrutiny after his behavior at the event in Acapulco and might have focus issues. I don’t think Tsitsipas’ one-handed backhand can stand the test of Nadal’s forehand. These are both advantage matchups for Nadal.
With Djokovic out, only not being 100% would prevent Nadal from being the clear favorite. My first outright bet for Indian Wells is Rafael Nadal +350.
Carlos Alcaraz
Indian Wells is known for its slower hard court surface. Although it is not clay because of the difference in the way the ball bounces and the ability for players to slide in a defensive manner, it still does favor defensive styles of play like clay courts.
Therefore I have chosen the heir apparent to Rafael Nadal’s clay-court throne, Carlos Alcaraz, as my second outright selection. Alcaraz has already been making waves in tournaments this season, winning the Rio de Janeiro ATP event in February. Alcaraz is 7-1 on the year. His only loss was in the Australian Open in a five-set battle against Marco Berrettini.
Many of the advantages that Nadal will have will also be present when Alcaraz plays. One major difference however is that he is a right-handed player and he will not be able to enjoy the same advantages in forehand to backhand rallies that Nadal has over players such as Medvedev and Tsitsipas.
Still, Alcaraz plays a grinding style that will play well here at Indian Wells. Alcaraz can also dial-up brilliant winners when need be. Right now Alcaraz is a potent mix of offense and defense and is poised to be number one in the world as he and his game continue to mature. Nadal is the natural favorite, but at the ATP odds of +2200, Alcaraz is definitely the best longshot opportunity for this tournament.
If Nadal slips up in any way, Alcaraz will be poised for the biggest win of his young professional career. Our second ATP outright will be Carlos Alcaraz +2200.
Picks to Win Indian Wells: Rafael Nadal (+350) with Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Picks to Win Indian Wells: Carlos Alcaraz (+2200) with Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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