We’ve made it! This weekend, we’ll be watching Super Bowl LVI between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Los Angeles Rams. Finally, we’re seeing some new teams playing in the big game, so there are no complaints from me.
Having said that, a lot of people like to question when to bet on the Super Bowl. With so many bets and the handle reaching outrageous numbers, everyone is scared of line movement. People don’t want to take a bet and then see the closing line value disappear a couple of days later.
So let’s take a look at the current NFL odds and break down when you should place a bet for the Super Bowl.
Sunday, February 13, 2022 – 06:30 PM EST at SoFi Stadium
Right now, the Rams are -4.5 point favorites. At first, the Rams were -3.5 when the odds were first opened. If you were watching the lines as soon as they came up, you could’ve got on the Rams at -3.5. Getting on any game early is what the sharps like to do. They want to be the ones to move the line.
READ MORE: Rams vs. Bengals Super Bowl LVI Odds, Preview and Best Bet
Recent history shows, however, that the Super Bowl line movement varies up and down throughout the two-week period. However, right before the big game is when even more line movement starts to play out.
If you’re looking for solid value and didn’t get in early with the Rams -3.5 and you want to take the Rams, you could potentially wait until right before kickoff. You might get value at a top sportsbook offering the Rams -4.5 at like +100, for example.
However, if you’re confident in a play and have the numbers to back it up, you do not need to wait. There’s no “right” time. The goal is to just have a better line than the closing line at the end of the day.
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The total for this game is currently sitting at 48.5. While most bets are still on the over, the total had reached 50 earlier when the lines had opened up. So if you liked the under, you could’ve got it at 50 at one point.
Now it’s at 48.5. Again, the total will probably flare up before kick-off as most Super Bowls have done, but ultimately, if you like the over for this game, now’s probably the time to take them over.
READ MORE: Rams vs. Bengals Super Bowl LVI Opening Odds Analysis
The line likely won’t adjust lower than 48.5 but it could get back to 49, for example, by kickoff, because of the fact that most of the handle and bets are coming in on the over, to begin with. So at the end of the day, there’s no set time to place a bet.
Lines are always moving and good, profitable bets don’t last forever. But trust your gut and your work and you’ll be profitable in the long run. In this game particular, it might not go your way.
READ MORE: Should You Bet on First and Anytime Touchdown Props for Super Bowl LVI?
But in five years, this game will be extremely small in comparison to all of the other games you’ve bet.
Stick with the process, trust your gut, and place your bet when you feel your NFL picks have value on the Super Bowl.